16 September 2019

Property sector faces grim outlook in 2014, BNP Paribas says

The central government is unlikely to unveil further property curbs after the ongoing party plenum but will use supply-side measures to control prices, Lee Wee-liat, head of Financials and Property Research of BNP Paribas, said in a teleconference Monday.

More local governments will be allowed to directly issue debt and collect property tax, making them less reliant on land sales for revenue, he said.

Growth in property prices could ease to 5 percent next year from more than 10 percent this year amid tightening liquidity. Sales volumes may fall to 10 percent from 20 to 30 percent.

Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. (00813.HK) and Country Garden Holding Co. Ltd. (02007.HK) will perform less well in 2014 than this year, Lee said.

Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. (03333.HK) faces a grim outlook but China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. (00688.HK) could outperform its peers.

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