Date
18 October 2017
Only a dramatic increase in household income and consumption can offset China's mounting debt, says Julius Baer. Photo: Bloomberg
Only a dramatic increase in household income and consumption can offset China's mounting debt, says Julius Baer. Photo: Bloomberg

Julius Baer warns of debt risk to China growth

China’s economic expansion is expected to slow to 5.3 percent by 2020, with mounting debt poised to become a major drag on growth.

Rising debt can only be offset by a dramatic increase in household income and consumption, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reports, citing Pearlyn Wong, head of Asia Pacific markets and investment solutions of Julius Baer Group Ltd. 

Wong expects growth to come in at 6.7 percent this year and 6 percent next year.

High net worth individuals are forecast to growth their wealth to US$8.25 trillion by 2020, up from an estimated US$5.1 trillion in 2016, Wong said.

She said the renminbi could trade on the strong side to 5.90 yuan to the the US dollar in the next five years from 6.10 yuan in 2014.

Meanwhile, Wang Tao, China chief economist of UBS A.G., revised his growth estimate to 6.2 percent for next year from 6.5 percent amid increasingly unfavorable conditions.

[Chinese version中文版]

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