China won’t find it easy to achieve the annual 6.5 percent growth that has been targeted for the next five years, according to an economist.
The new growth goal that has been outlined under the 13th Five-Year Plan, which covers the period 2016 to 2020, could be a challenge in view of numerous potential headwinds, says Tse Kwok-leung, head of economics and strategic planning department at Bank of China (Hong Kong) Ltd.
Exports downturn, industrial over-capacity and local government debt woes are among the factors that could constrain the nation’s economic expansion, the Hong Kong Economic Journal quoted Tse as saying.
More than headline growth, the more important task for Beijing is to double the per capita income of urban residents and the gross domestic product by 2020 from the 2010 levels, he said.
The key in such a leap lies in the restructuring of the economy and industrial upgrades, which can help the nation transform to the early stage of a developed country from a developing country, Tse said.
It is hoped that China will have per capita GDP of US$7,800 at the end of this year and more than US$12,000 by 2020.
In other comments, Tse said Hong Kong’s prospects with regard to being an international hub for the renminbi will depend on whether the Chinese currency manages to gain global status.
One cannot take anything for granted, he said, citing the problems in the offshore yen market in the past after Japan’s economic troubles.
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