22 February 2019
The Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark overnight interest rate in a range of 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. Photo: Bloomberg
The Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark overnight interest rate in a range of 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. Photo: Bloomberg

Fed leaves rates unchanged, says risks to outlook reduced

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on but said near-term risks to the US economic outlook had diminished.

The US central bank’s latest statement opens the door to a resumption of monetary policy tightening this year, Reuters reports.

The Fed said the economy had expanded at a moderate rate and job gains were strong in June.

Household spending also had been “growing strongly”, it added, pointing to an increase in labor utilization.

While Fed policymakers said they continued to closely monitor inflation data and global economic and financial developments, they indicated less worry about possible shocks that could push the economy off course.

“Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished,” the Fed’s policy-setting committee said in its statement on Wednesday following a two-day meeting in which it left its benchmark overnight interest rate in a range of 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent.

The Fed noted, however, that inflation expectations were on balance little changed in recent months, and gave no firm indication of whether it would raise rates at its next policy meeting in September.

Most Fed policymakers had urged caution in raising rates until there was concrete progress in moving inflation toward the central bank’s 2 percent target.

“It’s a little bit more hawkish, but not much,” said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital Associates in South Carolina.

The Fed’s preferred inflation rate currently stands at 1.6 percent and has been below target for more than four years.

US Treasury prices pared gains after the Fed’s decision, while the US dollar briefly strengthened against the euro and yen. US stocks extended declines before later reversing course to trade largely flat in the session.

Federal funds futures implied traders still see roughly even odds of a rate increase at the Fed’s December meeting and about a 20 percent chance of such a move in September, a bit lower than before the decision, according to CME’s FedWatch Group.

The policy-setting committee will also meet at the beginning of November, but a rate hike at that time is generally seen as unlikely because it would occur a week before the US presidential election.

The Fed has held steady on rates since December, when it raised them for the first time in nearly a decade and signaled another four rate increases were in the offing for 2016.

That was scaled back to two hikes this year after central bank policymakers issued new projections in which they also lowered their longer-term growth estimates for the US economy.

A global economic slowdown, financial market volatility and uncertainty over the impact of Britain’s June vote to leave the European Union have repeatedly forced the Fed to delay another rate increase.

The US economy, however, has suffered little initial impact from the Brexit vote.

A string of better-than-expected economic data recently as well as an easing in financial conditions also have calmed nerves.

Fed officials will now turn their attention to this Friday’s first initial estimate of US gross domestic product for the second quarter, which is expected to show a healthy rebound from the previous quarter.

The economy likely expanded at a 2.3 percent annualized rate during the second quarter, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s latest forecast.

– Contact us at [email protected]


EJI Weekly Newsletter

Please click here to unsubscribe