Date
25 June 2017
After Italians voted down Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reform plan, the risk of eurozone breaking up has increased. The euro is thus expected to stay under pressure. Photo: Reuters
After Italians voted down Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reform plan, the risk of eurozone breaking up has increased. The euro is thus expected to stay under pressure. Photo: Reuters

Italian referendum result points to a weaker euro

Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is preparing to resign after voters dismissed his plans for constitutional reform.

If Italy’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement wins the next general election, it will almost for certain call for a referendum to decide whether Italy should stay or leave the European Union.

The euro slumped to 1.056 against dollar on Monday, the lowest since March 2015.

While the euro may find some temporary support at around 1.05, considering that the currency has become quite oversold technically, political uncertainties may continue to weigh over the longer term. The next support levels will be 1.038 and 1.025.

In Australia, the central bank has left interest rates on hold but expressed a cautious economic outlook.

(The country’s gross domestic product shrank 0.5 percent in the three months to September, its first decline since March 2011 and its worst since the global financial crisis, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.)

The resistance levels for the Aussie dollar are at around 0.7575 and 0.7740. Downside supports can be found near 0.738 and 0.7145.

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key announced on Monday that he would leave office. The National Party will choose a new leader and prime minister on Dec. 12.

Bill English is widely expected to become the new leader, and the government’s broad policy direction should remain unchanged.

The New Zealand dollar has been hovering around 0.71 against US dollar this week. Key resistances will be at 0.72 and 0.74 and supports near 0.68 and 0.6676.

London gold price tumbled to US$1,157 per ounce on Monday, the lowest since Feb. 5. SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, said its gold positions shrank by 0.04 percent to 869.9 tons.

The 10-day moving average at US$1,180 has been capping the gold price and is expected to remain a key barrier. Immediate support levels are US$1176 and HK$1154.

This article appeared in the Hong Kong Economic Journal on Dec. 7.

Translation by Julie Zhu

[Chinese version 中文版]

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RT/CG

Sales director, Emperor Capital Group Limited; HKEJ columnist

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