Date
17 July 2019

Neil Dwane

As Global Strategist at Allianz Global Investors, Neil Dwane is responsible for presenting strategic house views and overseeing the Economics and Strategy Research teams.
  • Investors are caught in the disruptive fire of the US-China trade war, which is turning into a "tech cold war" that threatens to disrupt global supply chains. Photo: Reuters

    Trade and politics are top challenges in mid-year outlook

    - Jun 13, 2019 5:21pm
    Investors began 2019 cheering the global rally in risk assets that followed a dramatic late-2018 market plunge. The tough fourth quarter caused the US Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates despite a relatively strong US...
  • In many parts of the world, healthcare expenses, education costs and real estate are climbing faster than the official 2 percent inflation target of most major central banks. Photo:Reuters

    To fight inflation, hunt for income

    - May 16, 2019 5:08pm
    Today’s investors may feel inundated with information on how their portfolios can be derailed – including a steady drumbeat of geopolitical crises. In our view, many of these risks will ebb and flow over time. Besides,...
  • In a flattening or inverted yield-curve environment, 'growth'-style equities may be valued at a premium as growth becomes harder to find. Photo: Reuters

    Three themes for investors to keep in mind

    - Apr 16, 2019 11:41am
    The US yield curve recently “inverted” – the 3-month US Treasury yield pushed past the 10-year Treasury yield by 7.5 basis points on March 27 – leading many investors to wonder what’s next for the US...
  • US and Chinese officials pose for a photograph before the start of another round of trade talks at the White House in Washington on Feb. 21. Photo: Reuters

    China-US trade deal: what should investors expect?

    - Mar 21, 2019 12:31pm
    The American and Chinese trade delegations have been conducting intensive talks to try to reach a deal acceptable to both sides. Progress reports have been positive as US President Donald Trump recently postponed imposing a 25...
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping has spelled out clear strategies to create more demand inside China and to move up the value chain of many industries. Photo: Reuters

    Investing in China: look beyond the New Year, think long-term

    - Feb 22, 2019 10:47am
    In the Year of the Pig, China is likely to continue grappling with slower growth, mounting debt pile and a trade war with the United States. But according to Chinese legend, the pig is a sign...
  • Investors and companies need to prepare for a wide range of Brexit scenarios. Photo: Reuters

    On Brexit bill defeat

    - Jan 28, 2019 12:21pm
    On Jan. 15, the UK parliament decisively defeated Prime Minister Theresa May’s bill on the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union, putting a huge spanner into government policy and throwing into doubt the whole outcome...
  • Following President Donald Trump’s success at turbocharging an already hot US economy, more governments are looking to pump fiscal stimulus into their economies. Photo: Reuters

    Four key investment themes for 2019

    - Dec 31, 2018 2:15pm
    The global economy, which has been doing fairly well, is likely to become even less synchronized and more fragmented. This would continue a trend that began in earnest in 2018 as market returns turned negative. Trade...
  • Increased gridlock in Washington is likely to dampen investors’ appetite for risk, putting downward pressure on rates. Photo: Reuters

    With US midterm elections over, markets may feel relief

    - Dec 3, 2018 11:28am
    The US midterm elections on Nov. 6 resulted in a divided Congress – commonly referred to as “gridlock” – that has several economic implications: • President Donald Trump’s economic agenda – centered around tax reform, deregulation...
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is not especially concerned about empirical evidence that inversion of the yield curve has preceded each recession since World War II. Photo: Reuters

    Standing firm against recession

    - Nov 1, 2018 11:07am
    Amid optimism about the strong performance of the US economy, it is worth noting that second-quarter real GDP growth of roughly 4 percent was well above the 2.0-2.5 percent rate most private economists consider sustainable. With...
  • Gold can be a hedge against both inflation and policy errors by central banks. Photo: Reuters

    Beware inflation: it lurks before it spikes

    - Oct 8, 2018 8:48am
    There was a time when investors feared inflation, but it hasn’t been much of a factor for almost four decades – neither in the global economy nor in many investors’ strategies. This has led to a...
  • The Turkish lira went into freefall after US President Donald Trump tweeted a proposal to double his country’s tariffs on imports of Turkish steel and aluminum. Photo: Reuters

    Turkey: strong macroeconomic response required

    - Sep 10, 2018 7:15am
    Recent events have brought to a head a long-brewing crisis for Turkey. The Turkish lira already had a difficult year, reaching new record lows against the US dollar. But the lira went into freefall on Aug....
  • One of the reasons Donald Trump is focusing so intently on trade is that it appears to be a winning political issue at home. Photo: Reuters

    Trump turns the tables on trade

    - Aug 8, 2018 4:51pm
    As President Donald Trump ramps up the trade wars and retaliatory measures spread, investors are entering an unknown landscape – and no one knows what the US will do next. Yet given that trade makes up...
  • Italy’s Interior Minister Matteo Salvini speaks during a recent meeting of the far-right League party.  If new elections are held, a populist outcome could be more hostile to the EU’s leadership. Photo: AFP

    Political tumult in Italy fuels summer of uncertainty

    - Jul 9, 2018 12:13pm
    The recent political turmoil in Italy has again a spotlight on the challenges facing the country. Despite signs of improvement in its economic situation, helped by a stronger global economy and firming domestic demand, several factors weigh...
  • China's economic direction is clear, with market reforms working well overall and being expanded in a progressive manner. Photo: Bloomberg

    The rise of Asia

    - Jun 15, 2018 10:29am
    Asia is now clearly emerging from its historic position as the “workshop of the world” towards a millennial and services based set of economies, firmly underpinned by structural reforms across China, India and the other major...
  • From an investment perspective, most Asian currencies appear undervalued against their true potential – and especially undervalued against the US dollar. Photo: Bloomberg

    Hunger grows for Asian fixed-income

    - May 21, 2018 9:30am
    The financial crisis that affected Asia in the 1990s scarred both the region and its governments, prompting politicians and policymakers to learn from their mistakes. With structural reforms, tighter regulations and improved capital requirements, their efforts...
  • Facebook, as well as other tech giants such as Amazon and Google, are facing questions about their social impact and value – and they’re feeling pressure from governments and regulators. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why FANG firms are at a crossroads

    - Apr 20, 2018 4:14pm
    The tech stocks that fuelled the last bull market have seen their share prices plummet as an onslaught of bad headlines took its toll. More regulation and taxation are almost certainly on the horizon amid growing...
  • The US dollar is already becoming less important in global trade transactions. Photo: Bloomberg

    What’s fueling the growing appetite for Asian bonds?

    - Mar 26, 2018 9:14am
    The financial crisis that affected Asia in the 1990s scarred both the region and its governments, prompting politicians and policymakers to learn from their mistakes. With structural reforms, tighter regulations and improved capital requirements, their efforts...
  • China's spending on research and development activities is expected to surpass that of the US this year. Photo: Bloomberg

    Year of the Dog looks promising for Chinese equities

    - Feb 22, 2018 11:26am
    In this Lunar New Year, the stars seem to be aligning for China. President Xi Jinping is providing steady leadership, “One Belt, One Road” is spurring massive regional investments, and China’s R&D spend could soon overtake...
  • To ensure sustained growth, corporate leaders must adopt a business model that prioritizes long-term vision over short-term financial engineering. Photo: Reuters

    What companies must do to sustain long-term growth

    - Jan 29, 2018 10:00am
    It is perhaps time for corporations and their shareholders to design a more sustainable long-term business model that emphasizes transformative research and development. In recent years, investors have grown enamored of FANG firms (a reference to...
  • Most institutions invest in alternative asset classes for diversification amid pronounced geopolitical tail risks. Photo: Reuters

    Institutions use alternatives to manage risk

    - Jan 2, 2018 9:07am
    More than two-thirds of respondents to our institutional RiskMonitor survey told us they invest in alternative asset classes, and nearly one-third said they use alternatives primarily for diversification – the most commonly cited driver. Given the...

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