Date
14 November 2018

Neil Dwane

As Global Strategist at Allianz Global Investors, Neil Dwane is responsible for presenting strategic house views and overseeing the Economics and Strategy Research teams.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is not especially concerned about empirical evidence that inversion of the yield curve has preceded each recession since World War II. Photo: Reuters

    Standing firm against recession

    - Nov 1, 2018 11:07am
    Amid optimism about the strong performance of the US economy, it is worth noting that second-quarter real GDP growth of roughly 4 percent was well above the 2.0-2.5 percent rate most private economists consider sustainable. With...
  • Gold can be a hedge against both inflation and policy errors by central banks. Photo: Reuters

    Beware inflation: it lurks before it spikes

    - Oct 8, 2018 8:48am
    There was a time when investors feared inflation, but it hasn’t been much of a factor for almost four decades – neither in the global economy nor in many investors’ strategies. This has led to a...
  • The Turkish lira went into freefall after US President Donald Trump tweeted a proposal to double his country’s tariffs on imports of Turkish steel and aluminum. Photo: Reuters

    Turkey: strong macroeconomic response required

    - Sep 10, 2018 7:15am
    Recent events have brought to a head a long-brewing crisis for Turkey. The Turkish lira already had a difficult year, reaching new record lows against the US dollar. But the lira went into freefall on Aug....
  • One of the reasons Donald Trump is focusing so intently on trade is that it appears to be a winning political issue at home. Photo: Reuters

    Trump turns the tables on trade

    - Aug 8, 2018 4:51pm
    As President Donald Trump ramps up the trade wars and retaliatory measures spread, investors are entering an unknown landscape – and no one knows what the US will do next. Yet given that trade makes up...
  • Italy’s Interior Minister Matteo Salvini speaks during a recent meeting of the far-right League party.  If new elections are held, a populist outcome could be more hostile to the EU’s leadership. Photo: AFP

    Political tumult in Italy fuels summer of uncertainty

    - Jul 9, 2018 12:13pm
    The recent political turmoil in Italy has again a spotlight on the challenges facing the country. Despite signs of improvement in its economic situation, helped by a stronger global economy and firming domestic demand, several factors weigh...
  • China's economic direction is clear, with market reforms working well overall and being expanded in a progressive manner. Photo: Bloomberg

    The rise of Asia

    - Jun 15, 2018 10:29am
    Asia is now clearly emerging from its historic position as the “workshop of the world” towards a millennial and services based set of economies, firmly underpinned by structural reforms across China, India and the other major...
  • From an investment perspective, most Asian currencies appear undervalued against their true potential – and especially undervalued against the US dollar. Photo: Bloomberg

    Hunger grows for Asian fixed-income

    - May 21, 2018 9:30am
    The financial crisis that affected Asia in the 1990s scarred both the region and its governments, prompting politicians and policymakers to learn from their mistakes. With structural reforms, tighter regulations and improved capital requirements, their efforts...
  • Facebook, as well as other tech giants such as Amazon and Google, are facing questions about their social impact and value – and they’re feeling pressure from governments and regulators. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why FANG firms are at a crossroads

    - Apr 20, 2018 4:14pm
    The tech stocks that fuelled the last bull market have seen their share prices plummet as an onslaught of bad headlines took its toll. More regulation and taxation are almost certainly on the horizon amid growing...
  • The US dollar is already becoming less important in global trade transactions. Photo: Bloomberg

    What’s fueling the growing appetite for Asian bonds?

    - Mar 26, 2018 9:14am
    The financial crisis that affected Asia in the 1990s scarred both the region and its governments, prompting politicians and policymakers to learn from their mistakes. With structural reforms, tighter regulations and improved capital requirements, their efforts...
  • China's spending on research and development activities is expected to surpass that of the US this year. Photo: Bloomberg

    Year of the Dog looks promising for Chinese equities

    - Feb 22, 2018 11:26am
    In this Lunar New Year, the stars seem to be aligning for China. President Xi Jinping is providing steady leadership, “One Belt, One Road” is spurring massive regional investments, and China’s R&D spend could soon overtake...
  • To ensure sustained growth, corporate leaders must adopt a business model that prioritizes long-term vision over short-term financial engineering. Photo: Reuters

    What companies must do to sustain long-term growth

    - Jan 29, 2018 10:00am
    It is perhaps time for corporations and their shareholders to design a more sustainable long-term business model that emphasizes transformative research and development. In recent years, investors have grown enamored of FANG firms (a reference to...
  • Most institutions invest in alternative asset classes for diversification amid pronounced geopolitical tail risks. Photo: Reuters

    Institutions use alternatives to manage risk

    - Jan 2, 2018 9:07am
    More than two-thirds of respondents to our institutional RiskMonitor survey told us they invest in alternative asset classes, and nearly one-third said they use alternatives primarily for diversification – the most commonly cited driver. Given the...
  • Taking some risk to earn some return may be the best way forward, but finding the optimal balance between upside potential and downside protection can be difficult. Photo: Reuters

    How to be a risk leader, not a follower

    - Dec 1, 2017 9:53am
    A strong showing by equity markets in 2017 may simply have added to investors’ uncertainty as they gauge what to do next. Taking some risk to earn some return may be the best way forward, but...
  • With oil now edging toward US$60 per barrel, some investors are taking a fresh look at the sector. Photo: Reuters

    Concerns in oil market turn from oversupply to shortages

    - Nov 6, 2017 4:03pm
    An abundance of oil, thanks largely to US shale, has pushed down oil prices and sector sentiment. But since that means less investment in new production sources, the bearish market may soon rebalance from fears of...
  • Coalition talks may take several months, as Chancellor Angela  Merkel faces the complexity of securing a coalition with two other parties. Photo: Reuters

    Beyond the election: What’s next for Merkel and Europe?

    - Oct 9, 2017 8:00am
    While the reelection of Angela Merkel as German chancellor for a fourth term provides the reassurance and status quo that many investors sought, the rise of the nationalist right has weakened her hand and she faces...
  • In a survey of 750 institutional investors, 44 per cent say geopolitics represent a major risk to investment performance. Photo: Reuters

    New study shows investors face risk-return conundrum

    - Sep 11, 2017 8:00am
    While financial markets have never operated in a vacuum, geopolitics now appear to be having a greater impact on how investors are behaving than at any other point in recent memory. This is perhaps no surprise,...
  • Labor productivity growth has been trending down for decades. In the US, despite a spike around the turn of this century, the overall trend is down. Photo: YouTube

    To boost growth, solve the productivity puzzle

    - Aug 14, 2017 8:00am
    In a potentially troubling sign for growth globally, productivity has been declining for decades. In the first of a series on productivity as an economic theme, we explore why this seemingly dry concept matters – and...

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