We have been warning for months about the excessively optimistic expectations on a possible trade agreement between China and the US. The reality is that an agreement was not going to change the trend of the...

In recent days, one of the most repeated messages among European financial analysts has been this: “we are in a global slowdown“. The sentence, however, hides important nuances and very relevant differences. The European Union suffers a...

If we look at the key macroeconomic data published in recent weeks, the word that mostly comes to mind is “disappointing”. The slowdown in the eurozone is evident and more pronounced than what even the most...

If we analyze the ranking of the main technological companies (2017), there is not a single European entity among the top fifteen. The vast majority are North American and Chinese companies. If we go to the...

What happens when politicians see that their monster stimuli have not delivered? They bring the next rabbit out of a hat. They need a new name and a new magic solution to make citizens believe in...

Much has been written about the economic disaster perpetrated by the Maduro-Chavez regime in Venezuela. The magnitude of it is simply difficult to match. A sad global example of how to destroy a rich country. The...

Recent macro data from the leading economies point to a widespread slowdown. What is more concerning is not just a logical moderation in the path of growth, but acceleration in the weakening of economies that were...

The main reason why the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program has failed is that it started from a wrong diagnosis of the eurozone’s problem – that the European problem was a demand and liquidity issue,...

The agreement announced between the British government and the European Union has been received in the United Kingdom with criticism from all sides. The defenders of staying in the European Union consider it very negative, of...

The midterm elections in the United States have produced a result that was very similar to what the surveys estimated. The “blue wave”, an overwhelming victory by the Democratic Party that was predicted by some, did...

We have been reading numerous comments recently about a forthcoming recession and the next crisis, particularly on the tenth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The question is not whether there will be a crisis,...

A few months ago I wrote this article at the World Economic Forum called “A Yellow Card For The Global Economy“. It tried to serve as a warning on the rising imbalances of the emerging and...

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” – Warren Buffett  The US 10-year bond has reached, at the close of this article, a yield of 3.2 percent, the highest since...

Uncontrolled spending and ruinous results: Brazil has been a prime example of the policy of “more is less”. Under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff, the country felt invincible and believed that entering into...

The US administration has avoided the debate on currency manipulation in the past years due to the impact of the financial crisis. Why? Because all major economies have tried to solve their imbalances through the same...

While markets become increasingly bullish, oil prices are close to a “warning zone” where the barrel could be one — if not the only — catalyst of a major slowdown. The concept of “Oil Burden” is...

The biggest mistake in analyzing macroeconomic data is to assume causality to factors that are just catalysts. Don’t blame the Fed or Trump. That is just noise. The problem of emerging markets is largely self-inflicted and...

The stock market, like any other market, is a set of relative opportunities, not absolute ones.I have never seen a more pessimistic environment despite a stock market that continues to reach all-time highs.  Many friends are...

I find it amusing to read some analysts stating that the Chinese government’s stealth yuan devaluation has offset the impact of tariffs. A 10 percent tariff hurts a small part of the economy. However, a 10...