The midterm elections in the United States have produced a result that was very similar to what the surveys estimated. The “blue wave”, an overwhelming victory by the Democratic Party that was predicted by some, did...

We have been reading numerous comments recently about a forthcoming recession and the next crisis, particularly on the tenth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The question is not whether there will be a crisis,...

A few months ago I wrote this article at the World Economic Forum called “A Yellow Card For The Global Economy“. It tried to serve as a warning on the rising imbalances of the emerging and...

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” – Warren Buffett  The US 10-year bond has reached, at the close of this article, a yield of 3.2 percent, the highest since...

Uncontrolled spending and ruinous results: Brazil has been a prime example of the policy of “more is less”. Under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff, the country felt invincible and believed that entering into...

The US administration has avoided the debate on currency manipulation in the past years due to the impact of the financial crisis. Why? Because all major economies have tried to solve their imbalances through the same...

While markets become increasingly bullish, oil prices are close to a “warning zone” where the barrel could be one — if not the only — catalyst of a major slowdown. The concept of “Oil Burden” is...

The biggest mistake in analyzing macroeconomic data is to assume causality to factors that are just catalysts. Don’t blame the Fed or Trump. That is just noise. The problem of emerging markets is largely self-inflicted and...

The stock market, like any other market, is a set of relative opportunities, not absolute ones.I have never seen a more pessimistic environment despite a stock market that continues to reach all-time highs.  Many friends are...

I find it amusing to read some analysts stating that the Chinese government’s stealth yuan devaluation has offset the impact of tariffs. A 10 percent tariff hurts a small part of the economy. However, a 10...