19 September 2019

Nouriel Roubini

Chairman of Roubini Global Economics and professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University
  • The negative supply shocks from the US-China trade and technology war would be more or less permanent, as would the reduction in potential growth. Photo: Reuters

    The anatomy of the coming recession

    - Aug 23, 2019 10:38am
    There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each....
  • Cryptocurrencies are routinely launched and traded outside the domain of official financial oversight. Photo: Reuters

    The Great Crypto Heist

    - Jul 17, 2019 10:25am
    There is a good reason why every civilized country in the world tightly regulates its financial system. The 2008 global financial crisis, after all, was largely the result of rolling back financial regulation. Crooks, criminals, and...
  • The Sino-American relationship will be the key geopolitical issue of this century, writes Nouriel Roubini. Photo: Reuters

    The global consequences of a Sino-American cold war

    - May 21, 2019 11:47am
    A few years ago, as part of a Western delegation to China, I met President Xi Jinping in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. When addressing us, Xi argued that China’s rise would be peaceful, and...
  • Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in this picture taken on April 5. Markets have priced in many positive factors, but ‘risk-off’ sentiment could make a comeback down the road, Nouriel Roubini warns. Photo: Bloomberg

    Bipolar markets in the ‘New Mediocre’

    - Apr 23, 2019 11:24am
    Financial markets tend to undergo manic-depressive cycles, and this has been especially true in recent years. During risk-ons, investors – driven by “animal spirits” – produce bull markets, frothiness, and sometimes outright bubbles; eventually, however, they...
  • The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will pause its rate hikes for the foreseeable future and suspend its balance-sheet unwinding sometime this year. Photo: Bloomberg

    Understanding the Fed’s dovish turn

    - Mar 19, 2019 10:07am
    The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met in December 2018, it hiked the Fed’s policy rate to 2.25-2.5 percent, and signaled...
  • Fears of more Fed rate hikes this year could hit the markets and lead to a tightening of financial conditions. Photo: Bloomberg

    A mixed economic bag in 2019

    - Feb 11, 2019 10:26am
    After the synchronized global economic expansion of 2017 came the asynchronous growth of 2018, when most countries other than the United States started to experience slowdowns. Worries about US inflation, the US Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory,...
  • Donald Trump's reckless policies and trade wars have increased the risk of a financial crisis and global recession, according to Nouriel Roubini. Photo: Reuters.

    Trump vs the economy

    - Dec 31, 2018 10:42am
    Financial markets have finally awoken to the fact that Donald Trump is US president. Given that the world has endured two years of reckless tweets and public statements by the world’s most powerful man, the obvious...
  • If a central bank digital currency were to be issued, it would immediately displace cryptocurrencies, which are not scalable, cheap, secure, or actually decentralized. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why central bank digital currencies would ruin cryptocurrencies

    - Nov 20, 2018 9:45am
    The world’s central bankers have begun to discuss the idea of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and now even the International Monetary Fund and its managing director, Christine Lagarde, are talking openly about the pros and...
  • With the cryptocurrency bubble having gone bust, boosters have resorted to a defense of “blockchain”, the distributed-ledger software underpinning all cryptocurrencies. Photo: Bloomberg

    The big blockchain lie

    - Oct 16, 2018 9:01am
    With the value of Bitcoin having fallen by around 70 percent since its peak late last year, the mother of all bubbles has now gone bust. More generally, cryptocurrencies have entered a not-so-cryptic apocalypse. The value...
  • Trump’s fiscal and trade policies will crowd out private investment, reduce foreign direct investment in the US, and produce larger external deficits, experts warn. Photo: Bloomberg

    Trump may kill the global recovery

    - Jul 19, 2018 10:22am
    How does the current global economic outlook compare to that of a year ago? In 2017, the world economy was undergoing a synchronized expansion, with growth accelerating in both advanced economies and emerging markets. Moreover, despite...
  • Jay Clayton, the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, regards all cryptocurrencies as securities, with the exception of the first mover, Bitcoin, which he considers a commodity. Photo: Reuters, Bloomberg

    Initial coin scams

    - May 11, 2018 3:58pm
    Initial coin offerings have become the most common way to finance cryptocurrency ventures, of which there are now nearly 1,600 and rising. In exchange for your dollars, pounds, euros, or other currency, an ICO issues digital...
  • As is typical of a financial bubble, investors are buying cryptocurrencies not to use in transactions, but because they expect them to increase in value. Photo: Reuters

    Blockchain’s broken promises

    - Jan 29, 2018 4:49pm
      The financial-services industry has been undergoing a revolution. But the driving force is not overhyped blockchain applications such as Bitcoin. It is a revolution built on artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things....
  • President Donald Trump ran in the election last year as a populist but he has governed as a plutocrat. Photo: Reuters

    Populist plutocracy and the future of America

    - Dec 12, 2017 9:23am
    Donald Trump won the US presidency with the backing of working-class and socially conservative white voters on a populist platform of economic nationalism. Trump rejected the Republican Party’s traditional pro-business, pro-trade agenda, and, like Bernie Sanders...
  • Republican administrations have persisted in pursuing unsustainable and undesirable tax cuts benefiting primarily the rich. Photo: Reuters

    The plot against America’s 99%

    - Nov 7, 2017 9:33am
    After multiple failed attempts to “repeal and replace” the 2010 Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), US President Donald Trump’s administration now hopes to achieve its first legislative victory with a massive tax giveaway that it has wrapped...
  • The world's major economies need to implement structural reforms to boost growth and sustain the recent upswing. Photo: Bloomberg

    Three scenarios for the global economy

    - Oct 11, 2017 9:40am
    For the last few years, the global economy has been oscillating between periods of acceleration (when growth is positive and strengthening) and periods of deceleration (when growth is positive but weakening). After over a year of...
  • The Fed could make a mistake in its own policymaking. Fed chair Janet Yellen would then have to hike rates rapidly to catch up at the risk of triggering a recession. Photo: Reuters

    Downside risks of global recovery

    - Jun 6, 2017 10:43am
    For the past two years, the global economy has been growing, but it has swung between periods of rapid expansion and deceleration. During this period, two episodes, in particular, caused US and global equity prices to...
  • The Republicans must now choose between passing their tax cuts and pursuing a much more modest reform. Photo: Bloomberg.

    A fiscal reality test for US Republicans

    - Apr 11, 2017 3:54pm
    US President Donald Trump’s first major legislative goal – to “repeal and replace” the 2010 Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) – has already imploded, owing to Trump and congressional Republicans’ naiveté about the complexities of healthcare reform....
  • Economic theory suggests that, in principle, a border adjustment tax could push up the value of the dollar by as much as the tax, nullifying its effects on the relative competitiveness of imports and exports. Photo: Reuters

    America’s bad border tax

    - Mar 6, 2017 9:52am
    The United States may be about to implement a border adjustment tax. The Republican Party, now in control of the legislative and executive branches, views a BAT – which would effectively subsidize US exporters, by giving...
  • An “America first” approach under Donald Trump is likely to worsen the longstanding Sunni-Shia proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Photo: Reuters

    ‘America First’ and global conflict next

    - Jan 3, 2017 10:12am
    Donald Trump’s election as US president does not just represent a mounting populist backlash against globalization. It may also portend the end of Pax Americana – the international order of free exchange and shared security that...
  • If Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi fails, the anti-euro Five Star Movement could come to power as early as next year. Photo: Bloomberg

    Europe grapples with Brexit hangover

    - Aug 2, 2016 11:30am
    The market reaction to the Brexit shock has been mild compared with two other recent episodes of global financial volatility — the summer of 2015 (after fears of a Chinese hard landing) and the first two...