25 February 2020

Nouriel Roubini

Chairman of Roubini Global Economics and professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University
  • Financial markets remain blissfully in denial of the multiple risks facing the global economy and geopolitical situation, Nouriel Roubini notes. Photo: Reuters

    The White Swans of 2020

    - Feb 18, 2020 12:01pm
    In my 2010 book, Crisis Economics, I defined financial crises not as the “black swan” events that Nassim Nicholas Taleb described in his eponymous bestseller, but as “white swans.” According to Taleb, black swans are events...
  • A broad Sino-American decoupling will likely intensify over time, and is all but certain in the technology sector, the author says. Photo: Reuters

    Trump will make China great again

    - Dec 24, 2019 4:13pm
    Financial markets were cheered recently by the news that the United States and China have reached a “phase one” deal to prevent further escalation of their bilateral trade war. But there is actually very little to...
  • US and other equities are trending toward new highs, and there is even talk of a potential “melt-up” in equity values. Photo: Reuters

    Why financial markets’ new exuberance is irrational

    - Nov 21, 2019 10:57am
    This past May and August, escalations in the trade and technology conflict between the United States and China rattled stock markets and pushed bond yields to historic lows. But that was then: since then, financial markets...
  • Governors of central banks gather for a group picture at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank's 2019 Annual Meetings of finance ministers and bank governors, in Washington on Oct. 19. Photo: Reuters

    The allure and limits of monetized fiscal deficits

    - Oct 29, 2019 11:11am
    A cloud of gloom hovered over the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting this month. With the global economy experiencing a synchronized slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. Among other things,...
  • A blowup over Brexit might not by itself cause a global recession, but it would certainly trigger a European one, which would then spill over to other economies, Nouriel Roubini warns. Photo: Reuters

    Four collision courses for the global economy

    - Sep 25, 2019 10:17am
    In the classic game of “chicken,” two drivers race directly toward each other, and the first to swerve is the “loser.” If neither swerves, both will probably die. In the past, such scenarios have been studied...
  • The negative supply shocks from the US-China trade and technology war would be more or less permanent, as would the reduction in potential growth. Photo: Reuters

    The anatomy of the coming recession

    - Aug 23, 2019 10:38am
    There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each....
  • Cryptocurrencies are routinely launched and traded outside the domain of official financial oversight. Photo: Reuters

    The Great Crypto Heist

    - Jul 17, 2019 10:25am
    There is a good reason why every civilized country in the world tightly regulates its financial system. The 2008 global financial crisis, after all, was largely the result of rolling back financial regulation. Crooks, criminals, and...
  • The Sino-American relationship will be the key geopolitical issue of this century, writes Nouriel Roubini. Photo: Reuters

    The global consequences of a Sino-American cold war

    - May 21, 2019 11:47am
    A few years ago, as part of a Western delegation to China, I met President Xi Jinping in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. When addressing us, Xi argued that China’s rise would be peaceful, and...
  • Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in this picture taken on April 5. Markets have priced in many positive factors, but ‘risk-off’ sentiment could make a comeback down the road, Nouriel Roubini warns. Photo: Bloomberg

    Bipolar markets in the ‘New Mediocre’

    - Apr 23, 2019 11:24am
    Financial markets tend to undergo manic-depressive cycles, and this has been especially true in recent years. During risk-ons, investors – driven by “animal spirits” – produce bull markets, frothiness, and sometimes outright bubbles; eventually, however, they...
  • The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will pause its rate hikes for the foreseeable future and suspend its balance-sheet unwinding sometime this year. Photo: Bloomberg

    Understanding the Fed’s dovish turn

    - Mar 19, 2019 10:07am
    The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met in December 2018, it hiked the Fed’s policy rate to 2.25-2.5 percent, and signaled...
  • Fears of more Fed rate hikes this year could hit the markets and lead to a tightening of financial conditions. Photo: Bloomberg

    A mixed economic bag in 2019

    - Feb 11, 2019 10:26am
    After the synchronized global economic expansion of 2017 came the asynchronous growth of 2018, when most countries other than the United States started to experience slowdowns. Worries about US inflation, the US Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory,...
  • Donald Trump's reckless policies and trade wars have increased the risk of a financial crisis and global recession, according to Nouriel Roubini. Photo: Reuters.

    Trump vs the economy

    - Dec 31, 2018 10:42am
    Financial markets have finally awoken to the fact that Donald Trump is US president. Given that the world has endured two years of reckless tweets and public statements by the world’s most powerful man, the obvious...
  • If a central bank digital currency were to be issued, it would immediately displace cryptocurrencies, which are not scalable, cheap, secure, or actually decentralized. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why central bank digital currencies would ruin cryptocurrencies

    - Nov 20, 2018 9:45am
    The world’s central bankers have begun to discuss the idea of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and now even the International Monetary Fund and its managing director, Christine Lagarde, are talking openly about the pros and...
  • With the cryptocurrency bubble having gone bust, boosters have resorted to a defense of “blockchain”, the distributed-ledger software underpinning all cryptocurrencies. Photo: Bloomberg

    The big blockchain lie

    - Oct 16, 2018 9:01am
    With the value of Bitcoin having fallen by around 70 percent since its peak late last year, the mother of all bubbles has now gone bust. More generally, cryptocurrencies have entered a not-so-cryptic apocalypse. The value...
  • Trump’s fiscal and trade policies will crowd out private investment, reduce foreign direct investment in the US, and produce larger external deficits, experts warn. Photo: Bloomberg

    Trump may kill the global recovery

    - Jul 19, 2018 10:22am
    How does the current global economic outlook compare to that of a year ago? In 2017, the world economy was undergoing a synchronized expansion, with growth accelerating in both advanced economies and emerging markets. Moreover, despite...
  • Jay Clayton, the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, regards all cryptocurrencies as securities, with the exception of the first mover, Bitcoin, which he considers a commodity. Photo: Reuters, Bloomberg

    Initial coin scams

    - May 11, 2018 3:58pm
    Initial coin offerings have become the most common way to finance cryptocurrency ventures, of which there are now nearly 1,600 and rising. In exchange for your dollars, pounds, euros, or other currency, an ICO issues digital...
  • As is typical of a financial bubble, investors are buying cryptocurrencies not to use in transactions, but because they expect them to increase in value. Photo: Reuters

    Blockchain’s broken promises

    - Jan 29, 2018 4:49pm
      The financial-services industry has been undergoing a revolution. But the driving force is not overhyped blockchain applications such as Bitcoin. It is a revolution built on artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things....
  • President Donald Trump ran in the election last year as a populist but he has governed as a plutocrat. Photo: Reuters

    Populist plutocracy and the future of America

    - Dec 12, 2017 9:23am
    Donald Trump won the US presidency with the backing of working-class and socially conservative white voters on a populist platform of economic nationalism. Trump rejected the Republican Party’s traditional pro-business, pro-trade agenda, and, like Bernie Sanders...
  • Republican administrations have persisted in pursuing unsustainable and undesirable tax cuts benefiting primarily the rich. Photo: Reuters

    The plot against America’s 99%

    - Nov 7, 2017 9:33am
    After multiple failed attempts to “repeal and replace” the 2010 Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), US President Donald Trump’s administration now hopes to achieve its first legislative victory with a massive tax giveaway that it has wrapped...
  • The world's major economies need to implement structural reforms to boost growth and sustain the recent upswing. Photo: Bloomberg

    Three scenarios for the global economy

    - Oct 11, 2017 9:40am
    For the last few years, the global economy has been oscillating between periods of acceleration (when growth is positive and strengthening) and periods of deceleration (when growth is positive but weakening). After over a year of...