20 November 2018

Kenneth Rogoff

Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Harvard University. He was formerly chief economist at the IMF.
  • The arbitrary and politically driven nature of Trump’s trade war with China will hurt US growth, argues Kenneth Rogoff. Photo: Bloomberg

    The global impact of a Chinese recession

    - Nov 8, 2018 9:59am
      When China finally has its inevitable growth recession – which will almost surely be amplified by a financial crisis, given the economy’s massive leverage – how will the rest of world be affected? With US...
  • Although Singapore’s growth has slowed, it still compares favorably to Europe. Photo: Bloomberg

    Crazy Rich Asia

    - Oct 10, 2018 9:54am
    In the surprise hit movie “Crazy Rich Asians” (based on a 2013 Kevin Kwan novel), a New York University economics professor (Rachel), travels with her boyfriend to Singapore to meet his family. There, she learns, apparently...
  • Thousands try to cross the Venezuela-Colombia border through the Simon Bolivar International Bridge in San Antonio del Tachira, Venezuela. Photo: Reuters

    The regional costs of Venezuela’s collapse

    - Sep 6, 2018 8:30am
    As Venezuela’s great experiment with “Bolivarian” socialism implodes, it is creating a humanitarian and refugee crisis comparable to Europe in 2015. Traveling by bus, boat, and even on foot through treacherous terrain, around one million Venezuelans...
  • Even if the best bet is that any emerging-market bond meltdown would remain contained, today’s jitters ought to be a wake-up call, even for advanced economies. Photo: Bloomberg

    Are emerging markets the canary in the financial coal mine?

    - Jun 7, 2018 9:38am
      Are brewing exchange-rate and debt crises in Argentina and Turkey localized events without broader implications? Or are they early warning signs of deeper fragilities in bloated global debt markets that are being exposed as the...
  • China’s gains still come largely from adoption of Western technology, and in some cases, appropriation of intellectual property. Photo: Reuters

    Will China really supplant US economic hegemony?

    - Apr 4, 2018 9:53am
    As China and the United States engage in their latest trade tussle, most economists take it as given that China will achieve global economic supremacy in the long run, no matter what happens now. After all,...
  • AI and other new technologies will eventually come to have a much larger impact on global growth than they have up to now. Photo: Bloomberg

    Economists vs scientists on long-term growth

    - Mar 5, 2018 10:39am
    Most economic forecasters have largely shrugged off recent advances in artificial intelligence (for example, the quantum leap demonstrated by DeepMind’s self-learning chess program last December), seeing little impact on longer-term trend growth. Such pessimism is surely...
  • In the US, tertiary education accounts for over 2.5 percent of GDP, and yet much of the money is spent quite inefficiently. Photo: Bloomberg

    When will tech disrupt higher education?

    - Feb 7, 2018 10:50am
      In the early 1990s, at the dawn of the Internet era, an explosion in academic productivity seemed to be around the corner. But the corner never appeared. Instead, teaching techniques at colleges and universities, which...
  • Policy uncertainty in the US is nothing compared to the UK, where businesses face the twin disruptions of Brexit and (potentially) a Labour government led by the far-left Jeremy Corbyn. Photo: Bloomberg

    Giddy markets and grim politics

    - Jan 9, 2018 2:07pm
    Economic growth worldwide picked up in 2017, and the best guess is that the global economy will perform strongly in 2018 as well. At the same time, a rising tide of populism and authoritarianism poses a...
  • Rapidly rising obesity rates could slow or even reverse the dramatic gains in health and life expectancy that much of the world has enjoyed over the past few decades, experts warn. Photo: Bloomberg

    The US is exporting obesity

    - Dec 4, 2017 9:36am
    As US President Donald Trump’s administration throws sharp elbows in trade negotiations and systematically rescinds regulations introduced by President Barack Obama, one casualty is likely to be efforts to fight the global obesity epidemic. Left unchecked,...
  • US President Donald Trump with Jerome Powell, his nominee to become chairman of the US Federal Reserve, at the White House in Washington on Thursday. Photo: Reuters

    Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve

    - Nov 3, 2017 8:50am
    With the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve Board, US President Donald Trump has made perhaps the most important single decision of his presidency. It is a sane and sober...
  • At over US$4,200 (as of Oct. 5), a single unit of Bitcoin is now worth more than three times an ounce of gold. Photo: AFP

    Crypto-fool’s gold?

    - Oct 10, 2017 9:27am
    Is the cryptocurrency Bitcoin the biggest bubble in the world today, or a great investment bet on the cutting edge of new-age financial technology? My best guess is that in the long run, the technology will...
  • With the election of a reform-minded centrist president in France and the re-election of German Chancellor Angela Merkel seeming ever more likely, is there hope for the stalled single-currency project in Europe? Photo: Reuters

    The Eurozone must reform or die

    - Jun 15, 2017 11:58am
    With the election of a reform-minded centrist president in France and the re-election of German Chancellor Angela Merkel seeming ever more likely, is there hope for the stalled single-currency project in Europe? Perhaps, but another decade...
  • A disruption of trade with China could lead to massive price increases in low-cost stores – for example, Wal-Mart and Target – on which many Americans rely. Photo: Reuters

    Why Trump can’t bully China

    - Feb 10, 2017 10:38am
    As US President Donald Trump proceeds to destabilize the post-war global economic order, much of the world is collectively holding its breath. Commentators search for words to describe his assault on conventional norms of leadership and...
  • President-elect Donald Trump’s promise of less regulation could be a boost to investment confidence. Photo: Reuters

    The Trump boom?

    - Dec 8, 2016 12:59pm
    After years of hibernation, will the US economy rouse itself for a big comeback over the next couple of years? With an incoming Republican administration hell-bent on reflating an economy already near full employment, and with...
  • Presidential candidate Donald Trump claims the Fed is applying overdoses of monetary stimulus to hypnotize voters into believing economic recovery is under way. Photo: Reuters

    Is the Fed playing politics?

    - Oct 4, 2016 11:41am
    In his recent debate with his opponent Hillary Clinton, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump pressed his claim that US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen is politically motivated. The Fed, Trump claims, is applying overdoses of monetary...
  • Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has proposed slapping a 45 percent tax on Chinese imports into the US. Photo: Reuters

    The threat from an anti-trade America

    - Apr 8, 2016 9:55am
    The rise of anti-trade populism in the 2016 US election campaign portends a dangerous retreat from the United States’ role in world affairs. In the name of reducing US inequality, presidential candidates from both parties would...
  • People today don't need reminding that after the 2008 financial crisis, US stocks fell by more than 50 percent. Photo: internet

    The fear factor in global markets

    - Mar 11, 2016 8:51am
    The phenomenal market volatility of the past year owes much to genuine risks and uncertainties about factors such as Chinese growth, European banks and the oil glut. For the first two months of this year, many...
  • It will not be easy for China to put the genie of capital outflows back into the bottle. Photo: CNSA

    The great escape from China and the renminbi

    - Feb 3, 2016 8:45am
    Since 2016 began, the prospect of a major devaluation of China’s renminbi has been hanging over global markets like the Sword of Damocles. No other source of policy uncertainty has been as destabilizing. Few observers doubt...
  • The current massive El Niño phenomenon is likely to leave a significant footprint on global growth. Photo: Internet

    How extreme weather affects global growth

    - Jan 12, 2016 10:04am
    Until recently, the usual thinking among macroeconomists has been that short-term weather fluctuations don’t matter much for economic activity. Construction hiring may be stronger than usual in March when the weather is unseasonably mild, but there...
  • Janet Yellen has said plenty but has still left analysts and market observers scratching their heads about the Fed's interest rate strategy. Photo: Bloomberg

    Messy communication from the Fed

    - Nov 5, 2015 8:49am
    Nothing describes the US Federal Reserve’s current communication policy better than the old saying that a camel is a horse designed by committee. Various members of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) have called...

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