Date
24 January 2018

Kenneth Rogoff

Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Harvard University. He was formerly chief economist at the IMF.
  • Policy uncertainty in the US is nothing compared to the UK, where businesses face the twin disruptions of Brexit and (potentially) a Labour government led by the far-left Jeremy Corbyn. Photo: Bloomberg

    Giddy markets and grim politics

    - Jan 9, 2018 2:07pm
    Economic growth worldwide picked up in 2017, and the best guess is that the global economy will perform strongly in 2018 as well. At the same time, a rising tide of populism and authoritarianism poses a...
  • Rapidly rising obesity rates could slow or even reverse the dramatic gains in health and life expectancy that much of the world has enjoyed over the past few decades, experts warn. Photo: Bloomberg

    The US is exporting obesity

    - Dec 4, 2017 9:36am
    As US President Donald Trump’s administration throws sharp elbows in trade negotiations and systematically rescinds regulations introduced by President Barack Obama, one casualty is likely to be efforts to fight the global obesity epidemic. Left unchecked,...
  • US President Donald Trump with Jerome Powell, his nominee to become chairman of the US Federal Reserve, at the White House in Washington on Thursday. Photo: Reuters

    Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve

    - Nov 3, 2017 8:50am
    With the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve Board, US President Donald Trump has made perhaps the most important single decision of his presidency. It is a sane and sober...
  • At over US$4,200 (as of Oct. 5), a single unit of Bitcoin is now worth more than three times an ounce of gold. Photo: AFP

    Crypto-fool’s gold?

    - Oct 10, 2017 9:27am
    Is the cryptocurrency Bitcoin the biggest bubble in the world today, or a great investment bet on the cutting edge of new-age financial technology? My best guess is that in the long run, the technology will...
  • With the election of a reform-minded centrist president in France and the re-election of German Chancellor Angela Merkel seeming ever more likely, is there hope for the stalled single-currency project in Europe? Photo: Reuters

    The Eurozone must reform or die

    - Jun 15, 2017 11:58am
    With the election of a reform-minded centrist president in France and the re-election of German Chancellor Angela Merkel seeming ever more likely, is there hope for the stalled single-currency project in Europe? Perhaps, but another decade...
  • A disruption of trade with China could lead to massive price increases in low-cost stores – for example, Wal-Mart and Target – on which many Americans rely. Photo: Reuters

    Why Trump can’t bully China

    - Feb 10, 2017 10:38am
    As US President Donald Trump proceeds to destabilize the post-war global economic order, much of the world is collectively holding its breath. Commentators search for words to describe his assault on conventional norms of leadership and...
  • President-elect Donald Trump’s promise of less regulation could be a boost to investment confidence. Photo: Reuters

    The Trump boom?

    - Dec 8, 2016 12:59pm
    After years of hibernation, will the US economy rouse itself for a big comeback over the next couple of years? With an incoming Republican administration hell-bent on reflating an economy already near full employment, and with...
  • Presidential candidate Donald Trump claims the Fed is applying overdoses of monetary stimulus to hypnotize voters into believing economic recovery is under way. Photo: Reuters

    Is the Fed playing politics?

    - Oct 4, 2016 11:41am
    In his recent debate with his opponent Hillary Clinton, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump pressed his claim that US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen is politically motivated. The Fed, Trump claims, is applying overdoses of monetary...
  • Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has proposed slapping a 45 percent tax on Chinese imports into the US. Photo: Reuters

    The threat from an anti-trade America

    - Apr 8, 2016 9:55am
    The rise of anti-trade populism in the 2016 US election campaign portends a dangerous retreat from the United States’ role in world affairs. In the name of reducing US inequality, presidential candidates from both parties would...
  • People today don't need reminding that after the 2008 financial crisis, US stocks fell by more than 50 percent. Photo: internet

    The fear factor in global markets

    - Mar 11, 2016 8:51am
    The phenomenal market volatility of the past year owes much to genuine risks and uncertainties about factors such as Chinese growth, European banks and the oil glut. For the first two months of this year, many...
  • It will not be easy for China to put the genie of capital outflows back into the bottle. Photo: CNSA

    The great escape from China and the renminbi

    - Feb 3, 2016 8:45am
    Since 2016 began, the prospect of a major devaluation of China’s renminbi has been hanging over global markets like the Sword of Damocles. No other source of policy uncertainty has been as destabilizing. Few observers doubt...
  • The current massive El Niño phenomenon is likely to leave a significant footprint on global growth. Photo: Internet

    How extreme weather affects global growth

    - Jan 12, 2016 10:04am
    Until recently, the usual thinking among macroeconomists has been that short-term weather fluctuations don’t matter much for economic activity. Construction hiring may be stronger than usual in March when the weather is unseasonably mild, but there...
  • Janet Yellen has said plenty but has still left analysts and market observers scratching their heads about the Fed's interest rate strategy. Photo: Bloomberg

    Messy communication from the Fed

    - Nov 5, 2015 8:49am
    Nothing describes the US Federal Reserve’s current communication policy better than the old saying that a camel is a horse designed by committee. Various members of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) have called...
  • Not only are works of deceased artists like Picasso and Gauguin hitting record prices in auctions, the recent price frenzy extends to a significant number of living artists. Photo: Internet

    How China slowdown could burst the art bubble

    - Sep 7, 2015 8:54am
    What impact will China’s slowdown have on the red-hot contemporary art market? That might not seem like an obvious question until one considers that for emerging-market investors, art has become a critical tool for facilitating capital...
  • Legislation to promote healthier foods could reduce the number of children in affluent countries who become obese. Photo: Internet

    Fighting childhood obesity

    - Jun 15, 2015 9:57am
    To what extent should governments regulate or tax addictive behavior? This question has long framed public debate about alcohol, tobacco, gambling and other goods and services in many countries worldwide. And now, in the United States...
  • Funding is just one factor in the success of an infrastructure project. An Oxford University study shows large dams overrun their budget by 96 percent on average and have long construction delays. Photo: Reuters

    Will the China-led infrastructure bank work?

    - Apr 8, 2015 9:48am
    With China set to lead a new US$50 billion international financial institution, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), most of the debate has centered on the United States’ futile efforts to discourage other advanced economies from...
  • The Greek national flag (left) flies alongside the European Union flag in Athens.  The eurozone must continue to bend toward Greece, if it is not to break. Photo: Bloomberg

    What’s plan B for Greece?

    - Feb 3, 2015 9:11am
    Financial markets have greeted the election of Greece’s new far-left government in predictable fashion. However, although the Syriza party’s victory sent Greek equities and bonds plummeting, there is little sign of contagion to other distressed countries...
  • The Russian economy is in big trouble not because of the United States-led sanctions but because of the epic collapse in global oil prices. Photo: Bloomberg

    Do economic sanctions work?

    - Jan 5, 2015 8:51am
    With Western economic sanctions against Russia, Iran and Cuba in the news, it is a good time to take stock of the debate on just how well such measures work. The short answer is that economic...
  • What to do? Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor Haruhiko Kuroda ponders a question during a news conference in Tokyo. The BOJ has been doing its part in Abenomics but the government is falling short. Photo: Reuters

    Can Japan reboot?

    - Dec 8, 2014 9:30am
    Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s recent policy decisions — increase monetary stimulus dramatically, postpone a consumption-tax increase and call a snap election in mid-December — have returned his country to the forefront of an intense policy...
  • ECB President Mario Draghi chats with US Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen at a symposium in August. There are many reasons why central bankers receive intense media focus. Photo: Bloomberg

    Are central bankers getting too much attention?

    - Nov 14, 2014 8:32am
    Why do the comments of major economies’ central bankers command outsize attention nowadays? It is not as if they change interest rates all of the time. Nor have they developed new, more robust models for analyzing...

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