21 July 2018

Eric Lui

Hong Kong Economic Journal chief economist and strategist
  • The government usually moves to further tighten property policy about six months later if previous measures fail to cool the home market. Photo: HKEJ

    Where to look for signs of a peak-out in home prices

    - Mar 23, 2017 4:33pm
    Last week, I argued that the narrowing price gap with blue-chip housing estates and the rising down payment suggest the starter home boom may soon be over. However, that does not necessarily mean housing prices in...
  • Prices of starter homes have been rising much faster than those of blue-chip estates, narrowing the gap between the two. Photo: HKEJ

    Hong Kong’s starter-home boom may soon be over

    - Mar 16, 2017 5:06pm
    Hong Kong’s housing market has been picking up since the 2008 financial crisis. Private housing prices surged 195 percent between late 2008 and the end of January this year, translating into an annual increase of 14.3...
  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been signaling a more hawkish stance amid improving US economic data. Photo: Reuters

    Why US tightening may not hurt HK home prices now

    - Mar 9, 2017 4:58pm
    Market participants are factoring in a 90 percent chance for a March rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, as indicated by latest Fed funds futures. It is generally expected that the central bank will raise...
  • A trend of rising rates could stifle buybacks and M&A deals and diminish a key driving force of the US stock market but hopes of more spending under Donald Trump have kept investors excited. Photo: Reuters

    Buybacks, M&A deals: Are US stocks running out of steam?

    - Mar 2, 2017 4:23pm
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average has set new record for 12 straight days, the longest streak in nearly three decades. The US market has already rallied more than 10 percent since the election. While part of...
  • The rising proportion of positive profit alert points to an improving earnings trend and thus a stronger equity market ahead. Photo: HKEJ

    Profit alerts: Why Hong Kong stocks see brighter days ahead

    - Feb 23, 2017 4:49pm
    HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) has posted disappointing results for 2016. That has stoked concerns about other heavyweight stocks. However, the composition of profit alerts issued by listed companies point to a relatively positive outlook. There are two...
  • Hong Kong's monetary base is at a record high of HK$1.65 trillion, more than four times that in late 2008. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why Hong Kong banks are reluctant to follow US in hiking rates

    - Feb 16, 2017 4:55pm
    US Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that it’s “unwise“ to wait too long to raise interest rates as economic growth continues and inflation rises. Therefore, the Fed might accelerate the pace of increasing...
  • Price/earnings to growth ratio is a key yardstick Peter Lynch uses to identify growth stocks while avoiding overpaying for growth. Photo:

    How to build a winning HK equity portfolio the Peter Lynch way

    - Feb 9, 2017 4:45pm
    The Hang Seng Index posted a gain of nearly 26 percent in the Year of the 0Monkey (Feb. 11, 2016 to Jan. 17, 2017). Actual return was over 30 percent if dividend payments were included. However,...
  • Monetary policy divergence between China and the US could put renewed pressure on the renminbi. Photo: Reuters

    Is the yuan’s weakening trend behind us?

    - Jan 26, 2017 4:26pm
    The US dollar fell back after hitting a peak of 6.9895 against the yuan in the offshore market and has temporarily found support near the 100-day moving average. Beijing has tried numerous ways to stem capital...
  • Based on back testing results using past ten years’ data, an F-score based portfolio stands a good chance of helping investors beat the benchmark index. Photo: HKEJ

    Can F-Score strategy help beat the index?

    - Jan 19, 2017 5:12pm
    In a previous column, I had talked about the Piotroski F-Score. Now, let’s discuss if it actually works. The Piotroski F-score is a discrete score between 0-9 which reflects nine criteria used to gauge the strength...
  • Low real mortgage rates and an expected delay in actual delivery of new supply suggest the local property market will stay robust for the time being. Photo: HKEJ

    Will higher rates hit HK property prices right away?

    - Jan 12, 2017 5:12pm
    Market opinions are fairly divided over the prospect of Hong Kong housing prices this year. I believe there is further upside, although moderate, before housing prices start to level off by the end of the year....
  • The US dollar staged a strong rally after the US election, pushing the dollar index to a multi-year high. Photo: Reuters

    A review of 2016 forecasts

    - Dec 29, 2016 4:21pm
    I made 10 forecasts for major trends in the financial market in 2016, let’s take a look at how accurate these are. 1. Strong dollar (right). After hovering in the range of 94 to 98 most...
  • Capital flight and a strong dollar could push the renminbi to 7.6 against the US unit next year. Photo: China Daily

    What lies ahead for RMB and equity markets in 2017?

    - Dec 22, 2016 5:39pm
    In previous articles, I had outlined my predictions for firmer commodity prices, stronger global growth, further gains of the US dollar and continued rise in bond yields. This week, I will share my outlook on renminbi,...
  • Driven by political uncertainty in Europe and the potential of continued fund outflows from the region, the euro may drop to 0.94 against the greenback next year. Photo: flickr

    Get ready for the end of the bond bull market

    - Dec 15, 2016 4:15pm
    Last week, I made a prediction about improving global growth prospects and rising commodity prices next year. This week, I am going to talk about another three possible trends in 2017. First will be the end...
  • Stronger dollar and rising oil prices will lead to higher cost pressure and rising inflation. Photo: Reuters

    2017 global growth and inflation outlook

    - Dec 8, 2016 5:14pm
    As we prepare to bid goodbye to 2016, it’s time to make a prediction of the top 10 macro trends for next year. This week, I will start with global growth outlook and the prospects for...
  • Historically, the US dollar typically moved in opposite direction to commodity prices, but next year could be an exception. Photo: Reuters.

    Dollar index could surge to 107 next year

    - Dec 1, 2016 5:10pm
    The US dollar index broke out of its previous range following Donald Trump’s election victory and has posted sharp gains since then. Is the greenback poised to rise further? At the moment, the consensus is for...
  • US dollar strength, amid expectations of a Fed rate hike, has led to fund outflow from emerging markets recently. Photo: CNSA

    Will emerging markets face another financial turmoil?

    - Nov 24, 2016 5:00pm
    Bond yields and US dollar have both seen sharp gains since Donald Trump won the US presidential election earlier this month. There are worries that emerging markets may witness fresh financial turmoil, like what we saw...
  • Donald Trump is expected to lean more heavily on fiscal stimulus to bolster the economy, which implies large issuance of bonds and higher inflationary pressure.  Photo: Reuters

    Trump era could mean financial turmoil for emerging markets

    - Nov 17, 2016 4:52pm
    The ecosystem of financial markets is likely to go through fundamental changes after Donald Trump officially takes over the helm. That might trigger another wave of financial market turmoil in the future. The Federal Reserve had...
  • Easy monetary policy and the lack of other investment options prompted many Chinese to bet on properties. Photo: China News

    China housing bubble: When will it burst?

    - Nov 3, 2016 5:09pm
    Images of frenetic fighting by prospective homebuyers underscore the crazy housing market in China. Beijing has unveiled a set of measures to cool the frenzy, but the policy moves can only go so far in terms...
  • A significant portion of companies listed in Hong Kong generate the bulk of their businesses from China. Thus, a weaker yuan will weigh on their earnings. Photo: CNSA

    What does a weak yuan mean for Hong Kong equities?

    - Oct 27, 2016 4:45pm
    The offshore renminbi recently tumbled to a six-year low. How will that affect Hong Kong equities? Lots of Hong Kong-listed companies derive a significant portion of their earnings from China. A weaker yuan therefore hurts. About...
  • Factors such as easy monetary policy and continued capital outflows are likely to push the renminbi lower against the greenback in the next few months. Photo: China Daily

    Will the renminbi see more downward pressure?

    - Oct 20, 2016 5:03pm
    The depreciation of the Chinese renminbi has been a hot topic in the market recently. Since the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) introduced a 2 percent depreciation of the official daily midpoint fixing on Aug. 11...

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