23 March 2018

Eric Lui

Hong Kong Economic Journal chief economist and strategist
  • Price/earnings to growth ratio is a key yardstick Peter Lynch uses to identify growth stocks while avoiding overpaying for growth. Photo:

    How to build a winning HK equity portfolio the Peter Lynch way

    - Feb 9, 2017 4:45pm
    The Hang Seng Index posted a gain of nearly 26 percent in the Year of the 0Monkey (Feb. 11, 2016 to Jan. 17, 2017). Actual return was over 30 percent if dividend payments were included. However,...
  • Monetary policy divergence between China and the US could put renewed pressure on the renminbi. Photo: Reuters

    Is the yuan’s weakening trend behind us?

    - Jan 26, 2017 4:26pm
    The US dollar fell back after hitting a peak of 6.9895 against the yuan in the offshore market and has temporarily found support near the 100-day moving average. Beijing has tried numerous ways to stem capital...
  • Based on back testing results using past ten years’ data, an F-score based portfolio stands a good chance of helping investors beat the benchmark index. Photo: HKEJ

    Can F-Score strategy help beat the index?

    - Jan 19, 2017 5:12pm
    In a previous column, I had talked about the Piotroski F-Score. Now, let’s discuss if it actually works. The Piotroski F-score is a discrete score between 0-9 which reflects nine criteria used to gauge the strength...
  • Low real mortgage rates and an expected delay in actual delivery of new supply suggest the local property market will stay robust for the time being. Photo: HKEJ

    Will higher rates hit HK property prices right away?

    - Jan 12, 2017 5:12pm
    Market opinions are fairly divided over the prospect of Hong Kong housing prices this year. I believe there is further upside, although moderate, before housing prices start to level off by the end of the year....
  • The US dollar staged a strong rally after the US election, pushing the dollar index to a multi-year high. Photo: Reuters

    A review of 2016 forecasts

    - Dec 29, 2016 4:21pm
    I made 10 forecasts for major trends in the financial market in 2016, let’s take a look at how accurate these are. 1. Strong dollar (right). After hovering in the range of 94 to 98 most...
  • Capital flight and a strong dollar could push the renminbi to 7.6 against the US unit next year. Photo: China Daily

    What lies ahead for RMB and equity markets in 2017?

    - Dec 22, 2016 5:39pm
    In previous articles, I had outlined my predictions for firmer commodity prices, stronger global growth, further gains of the US dollar and continued rise in bond yields. This week, I will share my outlook on renminbi,...
  • Driven by political uncertainty in Europe and the potential of continued fund outflows from the region, the euro may drop to 0.94 against the greenback next year. Photo: flickr

    Get ready for the end of the bond bull market

    - Dec 15, 2016 4:15pm
    Last week, I made a prediction about improving global growth prospects and rising commodity prices next year. This week, I am going to talk about another three possible trends in 2017. First will be the end...
  • Stronger dollar and rising oil prices will lead to higher cost pressure and rising inflation. Photo: Reuters

    2017 global growth and inflation outlook

    - Dec 8, 2016 5:14pm
    As we prepare to bid goodbye to 2016, it’s time to make a prediction of the top 10 macro trends for next year. This week, I will start with global growth outlook and the prospects for...
  • Historically, the US dollar typically moved in opposite direction to commodity prices, but next year could be an exception. Photo: Reuters.

    Dollar index could surge to 107 next year

    - Dec 1, 2016 5:10pm
    The US dollar index broke out of its previous range following Donald Trump’s election victory and has posted sharp gains since then. Is the greenback poised to rise further? At the moment, the consensus is for...
  • US dollar strength, amid expectations of a Fed rate hike, has led to fund outflow from emerging markets recently. Photo: CNSA

    Will emerging markets face another financial turmoil?

    - Nov 24, 2016 5:00pm
    Bond yields and US dollar have both seen sharp gains since Donald Trump won the US presidential election earlier this month. There are worries that emerging markets may witness fresh financial turmoil, like what we saw...
  • Donald Trump is expected to lean more heavily on fiscal stimulus to bolster the economy, which implies large issuance of bonds and higher inflationary pressure.  Photo: Reuters

    Trump era could mean financial turmoil for emerging markets

    - Nov 17, 2016 4:52pm
    The ecosystem of financial markets is likely to go through fundamental changes after Donald Trump officially takes over the helm. That might trigger another wave of financial market turmoil in the future. The Federal Reserve had...
  • Easy monetary policy and the lack of other investment options prompted many Chinese to bet on properties. Photo: China News

    China housing bubble: When will it burst?

    - Nov 3, 2016 5:09pm
    Images of frenetic fighting by prospective homebuyers underscore the crazy housing market in China. Beijing has unveiled a set of measures to cool the frenzy, but the policy moves can only go so far in terms...
  • A significant portion of companies listed in Hong Kong generate the bulk of their businesses from China. Thus, a weaker yuan will weigh on their earnings. Photo: CNSA

    What does a weak yuan mean for Hong Kong equities?

    - Oct 27, 2016 4:45pm
    The offshore renminbi recently tumbled to a six-year low. How will that affect Hong Kong equities? Lots of Hong Kong-listed companies derive a significant portion of their earnings from China. A weaker yuan therefore hurts. About...
  • Factors such as easy monetary policy and continued capital outflows are likely to push the renminbi lower against the greenback in the next few months. Photo: China Daily

    Will the renminbi see more downward pressure?

    - Oct 20, 2016 5:03pm
    The depreciation of the Chinese renminbi has been a hot topic in the market recently. Since the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) introduced a 2 percent depreciation of the official daily midpoint fixing on Aug. 11...
  • Concerns over the negative impact of a hard Brexit and diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are likely to push the pound lower over the long run. Photo: AFP

    The worst is yet to come for the British pound

    - Oct 13, 2016 5:15pm
    Sterling plunged over 6 percent against the US dollar within three minutes to 1.1841 last week, hitting its lowest level in 31 years. While it has seen a moderate rebound since then, the flash crash points...
  • Other than a decline in investment interest, the UK economy has so far been doing much better than expected since the Brexit vote. Photo: Reuters

    Brexit uncertainties linger, but negative impact limited so far

    - Oct 6, 2016 3:48pm
    Following the Brexit vote in June, there have been lots of discussions about Britain’s post-EU arrangements, which can be loosely categorized as “hard” or “soft” options. Generally speaking, a hard Brexit arrangement would likely see the...
  • As the Fed kept rates unchanged, property transactions in Hong Kong surged recently, making the third quarter one of the best in the past three years. Photo: HKEJ

    Why the rate risks to property market may be overblown

    - Sep 29, 2016 4:56pm
    Hong Kong’s finance chief John Tsang has urged people to remain vigilant against a potential interest rate hike and the subsequent market volatility that the tightening move might trigger. Let’s now take at a look the...
  • Home price recovery gathered pace in August but with the market quite overbought, correction pressure is building up. Photo: HKEJ

    How long will Hong Kong’s housing boom last?

    - Sep 22, 2016 5:31pm
    The Centa-City Leading Index (CCL), a gauge of Hong Kong’s secondary housing prices, bottomed out in the first quarter. The pace of recovery picked up gradually and has been accelerating since August, lifting prices to the...
  • Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has hinted at a rate rise before the end of this year. But many factors may limit the Fed's room to tighten its monetary policy. Photo: Bloomberg

    Will fiscal stimulus replace monetary easing as policy focus?

    - Sep 19, 2016 10:07am
    Although the market is closely watching the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, the climbing yields in major government bond markets may actually offer more important implications. As we noted earlier, whether rates are hiked this month or...
  • A high short-selling ratio is often a buying signal as individual investors tend to start short-selling aggressively when the market has already fallen too much. Photo: moneypalm. com

    What does a high short-selling ratio tell you?

    - Sep 8, 2016 5:18pm
    Does short-selling data give any indication of future market direction? Let’s delve into the topic using historical data from the past 15 years. There are more than 800 shortable stocks in Hong Kong. The short-selling ratio...

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