23 March 2018

Eric Lui

Hong Kong Economic Journal chief economist and strategist
  • Warren Buffett has a thing or two to say about value investing summed up in one of his famous quotes: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."  Photo: Bloomberg

    Look who’s been swimming naked

    - May 28, 2015 6:14pm
    Joseph D. Piotroski, an associate professor of accounting at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, developed a formula for determining a test’s accuracy. He called it F-score which went on to be a widely used tool...
  • A flat in Taikoo Shing broke price records in a recent transaction, fueling worry about a property bubble. Photo: HKEJ

    What will trigger a collapse of Hong Kong home market

    - May 21, 2015 4:30pm
    There have been a lot of reports on housing prices setting new highs recently, which could be a contrarian indicator suggesting prices will level off. The property market has undoubtedly become red-hot and even starting to look...
  • US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has warned that stocks and bonds are richly valued, triggering a bond sell-off. Photo: Bloomberg

    Is the next financial crisis coming soon?

    - May 14, 2015 4:40pm
    It’s still safe for investors to bet on Hong Kong and mainland stocks as Beijing is poised to pump more money into the market in the short run. However, that does not necessarily mean the equity...
  • PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan is expected to launch more monetary easing measures soon. Photo: CNSA

    Honeymoon period in stock markets will sustain until 4th quarter

    - May 7, 2015 4:58pm
    The Hong Kong and mainland markets remain safe for investors. However, the rally may wind down in the last quarter of this year or in mid-2016. It’s quite possible to see the market levelling off in...
  • If one goes by total market cap versus GNP ratio, China's stock rally still has some way to go. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why Chinese stocks may be still undervalued

    - Apr 30, 2015 5:13pm
    Rumors have been flying around recently about a Chinese-version of quantitative easing (QE). According to one version, the Chinese central bank will expand the size and usage of the pledged supplementary lending (PSL). The other line...
  • CK Hutchison sold all the flats at Hemera at a record pace. Photo: HKEJ

    Does offloading of flats by CK Hutchison signal market peak?

    - Apr 23, 2015 5:44pm
    Over the past month, CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd.’s Hemera in Tseung Kwan O has been the best-selling housing project in Hong Kong. CKH (00001.HK) sold all 1,648 flats within two weeks, the fastest for a new...
  • Hong Kong stocks could rise further if Beijing's policy environment remains benign. Photo: HKEJ

    How much upside is left in the Hang Seng Index?

    - Apr 16, 2015 5:17pm
    How long can the Hong Kong stock market rally sustain? One can put this matter to debate, but the indicators now leave us with enough room for optimism. Technical analysis shows that the Hang Seng Index...
  • The Mandatory Provident Fund is far from sufficient for retirement unless an employee has more than 35 years to save or the investment can earn over 5 percent. Photo: HKEJ

    How much money do we need for our retirement?

    - Apr 2, 2015 4:50pm
    Retirement planning is one of the most important aspects of personal financial planning. It takes into account how one spends his/her money in the next decade or two.  If people don’t plan well ahead or save...
  • The Federal Reserve is determined to hike interest rates, although when it will do so remains uncertain. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why the US dollar will remain strong

    - Mar 26, 2015 2:09pm
    Is the US dollar in the middle of consolidation following a rally that started in mid-2014, or is the upward movement almost winding up? If the former case is true, how long will the consolidation last?...
  • Fed chief Janet Yellen is unlikely to push borrowing costs to more normal levels in a hurry, given some still weak spots in the US economy and labor market. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why the Fed won’t be in a hurry to raise interest rates

    - Mar 19, 2015 6:38pm
    Seen from a broad perspective, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise its key interest rate anytime soon.  Let us take a look at the world’s largest economy. The job market has shown sign of...
  • Local housing prices are very likely to peak out in the next three months, possibly in the middle of this year. Photo: HKEJ

    Why Hong Kong home prices may drop 15%

    - Mar 12, 2015 6:46pm
    The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has further tightened mortgage loan rules, which may have a direct impact on housing market transactions and mortgage applications, in particular for starter homes in the secondary market. So far...
  • China is unlikely to abandon its defensive stance on the renminbi even as the nation pursues monetary easing. Photo: Bloomberg

    More China easing likely, but don’t expect RMB to roll over

    - Feb 26, 2015 4:56pm
    A gauge of mainland liquidity has been in a continuous slide since February 5, pointing to tight conditions in the money market there. Given this situation, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to pump...
  • Prices of new homes are expected to reverse an uptrend in the next six months. Photo: HKEJ

    Hong Kong primary home prices to peak in six months

    - Feb 11, 2015 6:04pm
    Prices of new homes are likely to ease in the second quarter, reversing a run of increases, as transaction volumes and price growth continue to moderate. Deal volume and value in the primary market peaked in...
  • Mainland property markets remain in a downtrend. Photo: CNSA

    RRR reduction was inevitable as economic growth slows

    - Feb 5, 2015 5:56pm
    The People’s Bank of China announced a 50 basis point (0.5 percentage point) cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks Wednesday, an action the central bank took amid mounting pressure to do so. The country’s...
  • The ECB stimulus may pump excessive liquidity into markets but the support to stocks might be offset by a stronger dollar and a negative impact on emerging economies. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why ECB stimulus is nothing like the US version

    - Jan 29, 2015 4:11pm
    The final size of the eurozone quantitative easing (QE) is double the market expectation of 550 billion euros (US$620 billion). As a result, the euro has slumped below 1.11 against the US dollar, the lowest in...
  • Too much liquidity in the financial system can make markets volatile, as it contributes to asset bubbles that inevitably burst. Photo:HKEJ

    More market crashes to come this year amid forex volatility

    - Jan 22, 2015 4:41pm
    There is a good chance of financial crises this year given that the volatility of financial assets like equities, crude oil, metals and bonds has gained momentum since mid-2014. Looking back at several financial crises last century,...
  • High-end properties have underperformed starter homes or smaller flats since the government curbed demand for luxury units. Photo: HKEJ

    Signs starter homes frenzy is about to end

    - Jan 15, 2015 6:37pm
    The property market is likely to level off in the last quarter of the year or the first quarter of 2016 as the US dollar continues to strengthen and panic buying subsides. Impulse buying of so-called...
  • The decline in commodity prices as the US dollar strengthens has put deflationary pressures on Japan and many other economies. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why strong US dollar will shake global markets in 2015

    - Jan 9, 2015 12:53pm
    The US dollar will continue strengthening in the first half of this year unless the US Federal Reserve launches a new round of quantitative easing. Global financial markets face a severe crisis unless the Fed reverses its strong-dollar...
  • Hong Kong's equity market will benefit from a new round of quantitative easing in the United States next year. Photo: HKEJ

    Ten things you should know about the markets in 2015

    - Dec 18, 2014 5:57pm
    The market is facing various challenges going into the new year. We list 10 major predictions for financial markets in 2015, which would offer some insight to investors. (1) The US dollar is likely to stay...

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