21 July 2018

Eric Lui

Hong Kong Economic Journal chief economist and strategist
  • Asian stock markets were under pressure over the past week. Photo: AFP

    What’s next after the market slump?

    - Jul 9, 2015 4:51pm
    I’ve discussed four pre-conditions for A shares to wind up the bull cycle last week. However, A shares have tumbled dramatically since last week and met all the metrics for ending the bull cycle. In addition,...
  • Chinese stocks have tumbled recently as margin traders unwound positions amid concerns over the domestic economy and the situation in Greece. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why it may be premature to call an end to China bull market

    - Jul 2, 2015 4:20pm
    China’s A-shares have suffered big falls due to concerns over Greece’s worsening financial woes and unwinding of positions by domestic margin traders. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen below the 3,900-points level after posting the biggest...
  • Mainland stock investors may have reason to be cheerful for several months more. Photo: Xinhua

    Why A shares are likely to peak by end of the year

    - Jun 25, 2015 3:33pm
    I predicted late last year that the mainland stock market benchmark was likely to surpass 5,000 points this year. That came true in less than six months. However, the market has slumped as much as 13.3...
  • As housing prices have galloped at much faster pace than personal incomes, Hong Kong has become one of the most unaffordable cities in the world to buy a property. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why Hong Kong homes are ‘severely unaffordable’

    - Jun 20, 2015 8:03am
    Hong Kong’s housing affordability ratio was at 17 as of third quarter of last year, making it the most unaffordable cities to buy a property, according to the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey. What the data...
  • The US Federal Reserve may not hike rates at its meeting next week, but the odds for a tightening move before the year-end have risen considerably. Photo: Bloomberg

    Rate hike will be just one of many Fed macro tools

    - Jun 13, 2015 8:00am
    Market attention is now on the US Federal Reserve meeting that will be held June 16-17. It appears that a rate hike is coming closer as indicated by various data and Fed chief Janet Yellen’s remarks....
  • China's A-share market (left) still has an upside while the US stock market (right) may have peaked. Photos: Bloomberg, AFP

    What differences between US, China markets tell us

    - Jun 6, 2015 8:00am
    There are some similarities in and differences between the bull markets in the United States and China. (1) Both markets have rallied on the back of liquidity The central banks in both countries have pumped massive...
  • Warren Buffett has a thing or two to say about value investing summed up in one of his famous quotes: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."  Photo: Bloomberg

    Look who’s been swimming naked

    - May 28, 2015 6:14pm
    Joseph D. Piotroski, an associate professor of accounting at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, developed a formula for determining a test’s accuracy. He called it F-score which went on to be a widely used tool...
  • A flat in Taikoo Shing broke price records in a recent transaction, fueling worry about a property bubble. Photo: HKEJ

    What will trigger a collapse of Hong Kong home market

    - May 21, 2015 4:30pm
    There have been a lot of reports on housing prices setting new highs recently, which could be a contrarian indicator suggesting prices will level off. The property market has undoubtedly become red-hot and even starting to look...
  • US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen has warned that stocks and bonds are richly valued, triggering a bond sell-off. Photo: Bloomberg

    Is the next financial crisis coming soon?

    - May 14, 2015 4:40pm
    It’s still safe for investors to bet on Hong Kong and mainland stocks as Beijing is poised to pump more money into the market in the short run. However, that does not necessarily mean the equity...
  • PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan is expected to launch more monetary easing measures soon. Photo: CNSA

    Honeymoon period in stock markets will sustain until 4th quarter

    - May 7, 2015 4:58pm
    The Hong Kong and mainland markets remain safe for investors. However, the rally may wind down in the last quarter of this year or in mid-2016. It’s quite possible to see the market levelling off in...
  • If one goes by total market cap versus GNP ratio, China's stock rally still has some way to go. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why Chinese stocks may be still undervalued

    - Apr 30, 2015 5:13pm
    Rumors have been flying around recently about a Chinese-version of quantitative easing (QE). According to one version, the Chinese central bank will expand the size and usage of the pledged supplementary lending (PSL). The other line...
  • CK Hutchison sold all the flats at Hemera at a record pace. Photo: HKEJ

    Does offloading of flats by CK Hutchison signal market peak?

    - Apr 23, 2015 5:44pm
    Over the past month, CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd.’s Hemera in Tseung Kwan O has been the best-selling housing project in Hong Kong. CKH (00001.HK) sold all 1,648 flats within two weeks, the fastest for a new...
  • Hong Kong stocks could rise further if Beijing's policy environment remains benign. Photo: HKEJ

    How much upside is left in the Hang Seng Index?

    - Apr 16, 2015 5:17pm
    How long can the Hong Kong stock market rally sustain? One can put this matter to debate, but the indicators now leave us with enough room for optimism. Technical analysis shows that the Hang Seng Index...
  • The Mandatory Provident Fund is far from sufficient for retirement unless an employee has more than 35 years to save or the investment can earn over 5 percent. Photo: HKEJ

    How much money do we need for our retirement?

    - Apr 2, 2015 4:50pm
    Retirement planning is one of the most important aspects of personal financial planning. It takes into account how one spends his/her money in the next decade or two.  If people don’t plan well ahead or save...
  • The Federal Reserve is determined to hike interest rates, although when it will do so remains uncertain. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why the US dollar will remain strong

    - Mar 26, 2015 2:09pm
    Is the US dollar in the middle of consolidation following a rally that started in mid-2014, or is the upward movement almost winding up? If the former case is true, how long will the consolidation last?...
  • Fed chief Janet Yellen is unlikely to push borrowing costs to more normal levels in a hurry, given some still weak spots in the US economy and labor market. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why the Fed won’t be in a hurry to raise interest rates

    - Mar 19, 2015 6:38pm
    Seen from a broad perspective, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise its key interest rate anytime soon.  Let us take a look at the world’s largest economy. The job market has shown sign of...
  • Local housing prices are very likely to peak out in the next three months, possibly in the middle of this year. Photo: HKEJ

    Why Hong Kong home prices may drop 15%

    - Mar 12, 2015 6:46pm
    The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has further tightened mortgage loan rules, which may have a direct impact on housing market transactions and mortgage applications, in particular for starter homes in the secondary market. So far...
  • China is unlikely to abandon its defensive stance on the renminbi even as the nation pursues monetary easing. Photo: Bloomberg

    More China easing likely, but don’t expect RMB to roll over

    - Feb 26, 2015 4:56pm
    A gauge of mainland liquidity has been in a continuous slide since February 5, pointing to tight conditions in the money market there. Given this situation, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is likely to pump...
  • Prices of new homes are expected to reverse an uptrend in the next six months. Photo: HKEJ

    Hong Kong primary home prices to peak in six months

    - Feb 11, 2015 6:04pm
    Prices of new homes are likely to ease in the second quarter, reversing a run of increases, as transaction volumes and price growth continue to moderate. Deal volume and value in the primary market peaked in...
  • Mainland property markets remain in a downtrend. Photo: CNSA

    RRR reduction was inevitable as economic growth slows

    - Feb 5, 2015 5:56pm
    The People’s Bank of China announced a 50 basis point (0.5 percentage point) cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks Wednesday, an action the central bank took amid mounting pressure to do so. The country’s...

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