Date
27 April 2017

Hao Chenglin

Columnist at the Hong Kong Economic Journal
  • In 2009, then Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke launched a zero interest rate policy. Photo: Bloomberg

    Low valuation may also be expensive

    - Feb 3, 2016 5:16pm
    Typically, there are three indicators of economic recovery: high economic growth rate, high inflation and high interest rate. High interest rate is not bad if it reflects fast economic growth. But when the interest rate is...
  • Hong Kong will find itself in a difficult situation when the divergence of the US and Chinese economies expands. Photo: HKEJ

    Hong Kong torn between two divergent economies

    - Jan 29, 2016 5:07pm
    Hong Kong investors should worry more about the local economy than the situation in mainland China. The city’s monetary policy follows that of the United States, but its economic fundamentals are grounded in the mainland. When...
  • Almost 80 percent of new users of high-speed mobile networks in the past two years have chosen China Mobile. Photo: Bloomberg

    Bright future for China telecom sector

    - Jan 23, 2016 8:05am
    The Hong Kong and China stock markets have been falling recently. Is the real economy that bad? Mainland telecom operators, at least, paint a much brighter future. By the end of November last year, there were nearly...
  • The Hong Kong dollar has fallen to 7.83 from 7.75 against the greenback, marking the end of one-way inflows. That followed a rally which saw the local unit gain 25 percent in the past 18 months. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why speculators are targeting the Hong Kong dollar, not the yuan

    - Jan 22, 2016 6:02pm
    The signs are there — an A-share market meltdown, a sharp renminbi devaluation, turmoil in the Hong Kong stock market and a falling Hong Kong dollar.  So, are we seeing a replay of the 1997-1998 Asian...
  • A demonstration of a vehicle on auto-pilot at the Consumer Electronics Show. Photo: CNSA

    A third Industrial Revolution is on its way

    - Jan 15, 2016 4:31pm
    I attended the annual Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas days ago. The CES is a showcase of the world’s technology development. This year, I didn’t see as many revolutionary products as it had in previous years,...
  • A weaker renminbi will help enhance the competitiveness of China's exporters. Photo: Xinhua

    Why the China worries may be overblown

    - Jan 13, 2016 4:37pm
    A sudden slide in the renminbi exchange rate has unnerved investors and prompted a sell-off on the equity markets this year. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index has tumbled nearly 10 percent so far...
  • When we think of Taobao, we think of playing some game and when people say they will “give you a ‘like’,” they're basically saying they're addicted to social networking sites. Photo: HKEJ

    Tech stocks have a tipping point — where is it?

    - Dec 31, 2015 7:32am
    There’s a big possibility that the US stock market will outperform those in Hong Kong and mainland China. The technology-heavy NASDAQ index is likely to report better performance than the Dow and S&P 500 indices. This...
  • Destocking in the property market could lead to a new wave of property development frenzy in top-tier and second-tier cities, according to a senior Beijing academic. Photo: CNSA

    How destocking in China’s property market will affect stocks

    - Dec 23, 2015 3:58pm
    China has set five targets for 2016 — resolving industrial oversupply, destocking (in the property market), deleveraging (to avoid financial risk), reducing capital cost and expanding effective supply. The oversupply issue has been kicking around for...
  • Airbnb and Uber show that a bright future awaits the right internet-based companies. Photos: Bloomberg, Reuters

    Why quality internet stocks are worth investing in

    - Dec 16, 2015 3:41pm
    Christmas holidays are on their way. It’s a good time to travel, with a strong Hong Kong dollar. However, accommodation in popular tourist destinations will be extremely costly during the peak season. Why not give home-sharing...
  • The fight for control of Vanke may push up its share price. For long-term investors, the stock remains attractive. Photo: Reuters

    What to make of China’s wild and woolly stock market

    - Dec 12, 2015 8:05am
    China’s foreign exchange reserves slumped nearly US$90 billion in November alone. Also, the Hang Seng Index has tumbled to 21,800. Meanwhile, Bank of Jinzhou (00416.HK) is seeking to raise funds and a US insurance company has...
  • Investors should avoid relying too much on mathematical formulas to guide their investing. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why investors should learn to think for themselves

    - Dec 7, 2015 11:32am
    The price-earnings ratio is a widely used metric for valuing stocks. At the moment, the stocks in the Hang Seng Index have an average P/E ratio of 9.7 times, compared with an average 12.8 times over...
  • Many of us work five days a week, but we use Facebook and other websites at the office, at home and even before we go to sleep. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why I only buy stocks of the new economy

    - Nov 30, 2015 11:03am
    Famous American investor Peter Lynch got the inspiration to buy Wal-Mart, whose price rose 10 times in the following years, while shopping with his wife. That happened more than 30 years ago, and investors don’t have to shop...
  • Retailers could face more uncertainties next year after a business slowdown in 2015. Photo: Bloomberg

    Why we should take year-end forecasts with a pinch of salt

    - Nov 28, 2015 8:03am
    With just about five weeks to go before we bid goodbye to 2015, we can expect the usual flurry of predictions for the coming year. While the forecasts will draw much interest, it is also a...
  • China needs more economic reforms to ensure sustainable, long-term growth. Photo: Bloomberg

    China needs more reforms, not stimulus

    - Nov 21, 2015 8:03am
    Following a series of disappointing Chinese economic figures in recent weeks, there have been calls that Beijing should undertake more monetary easing measures. While the demands from market participants are not surprising, we should however examine...
  • Low valuations don't mean that stocks won't slide further. Photo: HKEJ

    Why investors should expect the unexpected

    - Nov 21, 2015 8:02am
    Amazon founder Jeff Bezos requires all top executives to read the book “The Black Swan”. The book says the causes and conditions behind everything in the world are very complicate. If people try to take simplified...
  • Alibaba chairman Jack Ma (center) and other executives launch Tmall's 11.11 Global Shopping Festival. Photo: Reuters

    Why online shopping will continue to outperform in China

    - Nov 14, 2015 8:01am
    Regarding the origins of the “Double 11” in mainland China, it is claimed that more than 20 years ago, four male students at Nanjing University discussed each night before going to sleep how they could get...
  • Facebook is more than a social media platform, and  Google, with self-driving cars among its businesses, is much more than a search engine firm. Photos: Bloomberg, Reuters

    How to think out of the box in investing

    - Nov 9, 2015 10:56am
    Most people jump to conclusions on superficial impressions and spend little time to find out the underlying truth. In the investment world, a huge difference between value and price can bring massive profit or loss for...
  • Canadian author Malcolm Gladwell compares investing with the biblical story of David and Goliath. Not everything is what it seems. Photo: Bloomberg

    Institutional vs retail investor: Spot the real winner

    - Nov 2, 2015 1:09pm
    It’s a common belief that institutional investors have great advantages over retail investors but is it true? Malcolm Gladwell, a Canadian journalist and author, discusses this subject in his book David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, and the...
  • Ctrip and Qunar have agreed to merge amid intensifying competition in the Chinese online travel service industry. Photos: Bloomberg

    Why China O2O sector will see more consolidation

    - Oct 31, 2015 8:04am
    Ctrip.com International Ltd., China’s largest online travel company, has agreed to merge with its rival Qunar Cayman Islands Ltd. The deal will create a dominant online travel service company in the mainland with nearly 70 percent...
  • Those who think home prices will continue falling assume the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. Photo: HKEJ

    The biggest blind spot in property analysis

    - Oct 23, 2015 4:44pm
    Hong Kong’s real estate market has started to cool down recently, arousing heated debate on whether the trend will continue. In this article, rather than expressing my opinion on the property market, I want to discuss...

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