Date
23 April 2019

Jim O'Neill

Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK Treasury Minister, is Chair of Chatham House.
  • China will struggle to attain growth above 5 percent in the 2021-2030 period, for the simple reason that its workforce growth will have peaked. Photo: Xinhua

    The future of economic growth

    - Apr 12, 2019 10:41am
    Last month, I wrote about the growing divide between economic theory and real-world economic conditions, and reminded readers that economics is still a social science, despite whatever loftier ambitions its practitioners may have. Nonetheless, when it...
  • Jobseekers fill out forms at a jobs fair in New York. The old economic theory that asserts a clear tradeoff between unemployment and inflation does not hold true in the US and Britain after the global financial crisis. Photo: Bloomberg

    Can economics shake its shibboleths?

    - Mar 15, 2019 10:00am
    Though economics aspires to the rigor of the natural sciences, at the end of the day it is still a social science. At no point in the past 40 years has this been more evident than...
  • Shinzo Abe, who will become the longest-serving prime minister in Japan’s history later this year, has delivered a remarkable period of stability. Photo: Reuters

    Is Japan’s sun rising?

    - Feb 11, 2019 7:33am
    When I participated in the Chatham House/Daiwa Research Institute conference on the post-Brexit Japan-UK relationship in Tokyo last month, it was my first visit back to Japan since my departure from Goldman Sachs almost six years...
  • China’s domestic consumption is almost five times lower than that of the US, but the high overall growth rate means Chinese consumers could potentially play a much larger role, with far-reaching benefits for global brands. Photo: Bloomberg

    Whither the Chinese consumer?

    - Jan 11, 2019 9:52am
    For most of the past decade, the growing spending power of China’s expanding middle class has fueled the global economy. After the 2008 financial crisis, I argued that the United States and China would need to...
  • The United States seems to think that if China’s GDP were to surpass that of the US in nominal dollar terms, US economic prospects would be reduced by an amount equal to the margin of China’s gain. Photo: Reuters

    Trump’s economic war of choice

    - Dec 14, 2018 9:47am
    The brewing conflict between the United States and China is typical of zero-sum contests among countries, firms, and individuals. The US is acting under the implicit assumption that if China’s GDP were to surpass that of...
  • Recent developments show that when the right conditions are put in place, there can indeed be a market for developing new antibiotics. Photo: Bloomberg

    An earnest proposal for tackling AMR

    - Nov 5, 2018 9:52am
      Under Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, the United Kingdom will leave the European Union on March 29, 2019. Presuming that it does (but even if it does not), the UK government should continue...
  • Italy has long had poor productivity by European standards. Photo: Bloomberg

    Will Italy sink Europe?

    - Oct 18, 2018 9:50am
      Despite political turmoil and emerging risks at the global level, the eurozone has had two years of strong economic growth, at least by its own historically disappointing standards – and even with the United Kingdom...
  • China has contributed an even larger share of global growth in this decade than it did in the last. Photo: Bloomberg

    The global economy ten years after

    - Sep 11, 2018 10:09am
    Much will be said about the tenth anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, so I will focus on the global economy, which has not been nearly as weak as many seem to think. According to the...
  • Despite his escalating rhetoric, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may soon find that he has little choice but to abandon his isolationist and antagonistic policies of the last few years. Photo: Reuters

    The Turkish emerging market timebomb

    - Aug 15, 2018 10:23am
    Turkey’s falling currency and deteriorating financial conditions lend credence, at least for some people, to the notion that “a crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” I suspect that many Western policymakers, in particular, are not...
  • If US and China continue trading blows with tit-for-tat tariffs, both will lose – and so will the world economy, experts warn. Photo: Bloomberg

    The global economy’s uncertain future

    - Jul 10, 2018 10:08am
    At the start of 2018, most of the world economy was experiencing a synchronized cyclical recovery that seemed to herald a longer period of sustainable growth and an end to the decade-long hangover from the 2008...
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks to US President Donald Trump during the second day of the G7 meeting in Quebec, Canada, on June 9. Photo: Handout via Reuters

    Why the G7 is a zero

    - Jun 13, 2018 10:04am
      Though US President Donald Trump’s appearance at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Quebec last week was not particularly well received, I find myself sympathizing with his skepticism toward the group. I have long...
  • It would seem that higher education is an area where the United Kingdom truly excels. And yet the UK’s impending withdrawal from the European Union could threaten this success. Photo: Bloomberg

    How universities can soften the Brexit blow

    - May 17, 2018 1:16pm
    The United Kingdom ranks around 22nd among countries in terms of population. Its economy is somewhere between the fifth- and seventh-largest in the world in terms of nominal GDP (in US dollars), which is comparable to...
  • Vietnam reported an inflation-adjusted GDP growth of 7.4 percent in the latest quarter, outpacing China, and is on track to maintain a similar level of growth for the year. Photo: Bloomberg

    The ‘Next Eleven’ and the world economy

    - Apr 23, 2018 10:21am
    On a recent holiday in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, I couldn’t resist thinking about these countries’ economic potential and ongoing policy challenges. After all, in 2005, my Goldman Sachs colleagues and I had listed Vietnam as...
  • President Xi Jinping casts his ballot during a vote on a constitutional amendment lifting presidential term limits, at the third plenary session of the National People's Congress  in Beijing on Sunday. Photo: Reuters

    Missing the forest for the Xi

    - Mar 13, 2018 10:26am
    In recent weeks, Western media commentators have focused extensively on the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) decision to abolish presidential term limits, which will allow Xi Jinping to remain in power indefinitely. Unsurprisingly, they have generally...
  • Since 2010, Chinese consumers have added around US$2.9 trillion to the world economy. That is bigger than the entire UK economy. Photo: Reuters

    China’s irresistible rise

    - Jan 31, 2018 10:27am
    China’s recently released GDP data for 2017 confirm it: the country’s dramatic rise, with the concomitant increase in its global economic relevance, is not slowing down. To be sure, there has been fresh media chatter about...
  • Looking at the global macro scene, while many oft-cited concerns in 2017 turned out to be unwarranted, it doesn’t mean economic risks have disappeared. Photo: Bloomberg

    Good times at last?

    - Jan 12, 2018 10:05am
      In February 2017, I wrote an optimistic commentary called “The Global Economy’s Surprising Resilience.” The piece came as a surprise to those who saw only bleak prospects for Western countries, not least the United States,...
  • Shoppers walk through a Christmas market in Nottingham, central England. There is widespread fear that Brexit will hurt British consumers through higher import prices and weak business investment. Photo: AFP

    A better British story

    - Dec 7, 2017 9:00am
    Nowadays, there are hazards to looking for signs of hope in the British economy. As the latest OECD forecast for 2018 and beyond shows, a cloud of gloom has descended on the United Kingdom. The primary...
  • Unless urgent steps are taken, ten million people could die from AMR-related illnesses every year by 2050, experts warn. Photo: Bloomberg

    Turning AMR words into action

    - Nov 28, 2017 9:11am
    It was Antibiotic Awareness Week earlier this month, and, as Chair of the UK government’s Review on Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) under Prime Minister David Cameron, I participated in a number of events to draw attention to...
  • Even as many countries try to wean themselves off oil, that transition will not happen overnight. Accordingly, oil markets are adjusting to stronger demand. Photo: Reuters

    The abnormality of oil

    - Nov 21, 2017 9:05am
    Writing about oil prices is always risky. In January 2015, I suggested that oil prices would not continue to fall, and even predicted that they would “finish the year higher than they were when it began.”...
  • Despite the slower growth trend this year, China will still add about US$1 trillion or more to its nominal GDP, giving it a US$12 trillion economy by the end of this year. Photo:  Reuters

    What’s really at stake at the CCP Congress?

    - Oct 19, 2017 9:25am
    This month, international media are understandably focused on the Chinese Communist Party’s 19th National Congress, a carefully choreographed event that will reveal who’s “in” and who’s “out” with Chinese President Xi Jinping. But while it is...

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