Top Sinologist sees China-Taiwan war as unlikely

Mark O'Neill September 25, 2024 22:06

One of Hong Kong’s top Sinologists does not expect China to attack Taiwan because the economic and political risks are too high, with the war in Ukraine having increased Taiwan’s military preparedness and unity.

Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Professor Emeritus of Baptist University, was giving a lecture at the Asia Society on his book “Facing China: the Prospects for War and Peace”, which has been published in French and English.

“China’s public and elite are divided over a war with Taiwan. A survey of Chinese last year found that only 52 per cent supported such a war. Xi Jinping is more of a risk-taker than his predecessors but is still cautious.

“Facing difficulties, such as the weakening economy, the Communist Party is not likely to go to war, despite its rhetoric,” he said. “Its aim is to intimidate the Taiwan people and convince them not to declare independence and to accept the 1992 consensus (of a single China).”

Since Tsai Ying-wen of the Democratic Progress Party (DPP) became President of Taiwan in 2016, relations with the mainland have worsened. There have been no bilateral talks since then. In May, Lai Ching-teh, also of the DPP, became President.

During the past five years, the PLA has increased its military exercises around and above Taiwan, including firing missiles over the island in August 2022 that landed in the Pacific Ocean. PLA fighters have flown very close to but not into Taiwan airspace.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has strengthened Taiwan’s defence, said Cabestan. “It has unified the Taiwan people and increased support for defence spending. The military draft has been increased from four to 12 months. This has been accepted by the elite and society as a whole, while young people are less enthusiastic.

“President Joe Biden has said four times that the U.S. would intervene if China started an unprovoked war against Taiwan. His support for Taiwan is stronger than for Ukraine. This support will be continued by whichever candidate wins the presidential election in November,” he said.

Another important factor is the intense co-operation between Taiwan and the Pentagon. “Each year 3,000-4,000 Pentagon experts go to Taiwan and the U.S. military has trained 85 tank specialists from Taiwan. Its aim is for Taiwan to establish a conventional deterrent strong enough to make the PLA think twice before attacking,” he said. The U.S. is the only supplier of weapons to Taiwan.
He said the Taiwan armed forces had not fully established such a deterrent but that things were improving.

In August, the Taiwan government announced an increase of nearly six per cent in its 2025 defence budget to a record NT$647 billion (US$19.8 billion), 2.45 per cent of GDP for the year, up from 2.38 per cent this year.

President Lai said: “we are determined to enhance our self-defence capabilities and strengthen co-operation with democratic partners to ensure peace and prosperity.” This increase will allow Taiwan to continue developing its own weapons and purchases arms from the U.S. amid the growing Chinese military threat in the region, the government said.

Cabestan said that Taiwan people did not want to be part of the PRC and the vast majority supported the status quo that has kept the peace since 1949, with few supporting independence.

“Another option for China would be a blockade of Taiwan. It would be harder to provide external military support,” he said.

“The danger is that incidents could degenerate into conflict. How do you manage them? On the positive side, military ties have resumed between China and the U.S. Will they be enough to manage such incidents? That is the big question,” he said.

In April 2001, a U.S. naval aircraft collided with a PLA Air Force J-8 interceptor, which crashed killing the pilot. The U.S. plane landed at a PLA base in Hainan island. The crisis was solved through diplomatic negotiations, with the crew released after two weeks and the plane returned after six months.

The PLA has two million soldiers, the largest army in the world, and has 370 ships, compared to 295 in the U.S. navy. It has 2,400 combat aircraft, with a military budget larger than that of Russia, but less than that of the U.S.

Cabestan said that the most successful operation of the PLA over the last 15 years has been its “grey zone” warfare in the South China Sea, enabling it to occupy and control almost the entire area, against the wishes of the other countries in the region. “Grey zone” means military operations short of open conflict.

“World War Three has not started,” he said. “But a new Cold War has started, with growing competition between China and the U.S. It is hard for them to find common ground. The decline of the U.S. has been predicted but not happened. Both sides are nuclear powers. This can be a factor of peace, as it was during the U.S.-Soviet Cold War.”

Mark O'Neill

A Hong Kong-based writer, teacher and speaker.