Without China, Putin cannot fight his war
On August 9, Ukrainian drones attacked the Deng Xiaoping Logistics Centre in Tatarstan, 1,400 km from the border. They were targeting a factory making the Shahed drones Russia uses to attack their cities.
The target was in Yelabuga, a Sino-Russian project that is one of the largest logistics centres in Russia. It was built as a hub for Chinese companies to supply goods and industrial components to Russia.
Covering the size of 10 football fields, the factory produces 6,000 drones a year. Such is the shortage of manpower in Russia that more than 1,000 women from Uganda work in the factory.
The centre illustrates the essential role China plays in Russia’s war effort.
Oleh Alesandrov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, said that Russia had a critical dependency on Chinese spare parts for tactical and long-range drones.
These include hardware, electronics, navigation, optical and telemetry systems, engines, microcircuits and processor modules. “Chinese manufacturers use shell companies, change name and do everything to avoid being subject to export control,” he said. “This is helping Russia catch up with Ukraine in drone production.”
Ukraine says that about 60 per cent of foreign parts found in Russian weapons were supplied by China.
Beijing denies supplying drones or weapons components to Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin will have the opportunity to thank President Xi Jinping in person when he attends a giant military parade in Beijing on September 3 to mark 80 years since the end of World War Two.
He has much to be grateful for. In 2024, China imported 108.5 million tonnes of Russian oil, accounting for 19.6 per cent of its total oil imports. This high level of imports has continued this year, making Russia its main supplier of oil.
To show their disgust at the presence of a man they regard as an International War Criminal, diplomats from the European Union in Beijing will boycott the parade. In addition, soldiers from the Russian military may take part.
On Friday, the European Union Office in Hong Kong held a reception to mark the Independence Day of Ukraine. Ambassador Harvey Rouse said that the EU support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and integrity was unwavering and that the EU was its largest donor.
Elina Ribakova, a non-resident fellow of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that China was a critical enabler for Russia and its largest trade partner. “It is a very lopsided relationship. Russia accounts for less than four per cent of China’s external investment.”
She said that China’s large exports to Russia of cars, consumer goods and other items enabled Russian industry to pivot to the war economy. Defence accounts for 40 per cent of the Russian budget this year.
She said that China also played a critical role in helping Russia avoid international sanctions. “Almost 90 per cent of the circumventions of export controls involve China, either through a company registered in Hong Kong or shipped by China.
“Russia is not producing more sophisticated products at home for its weaponry,” she said.
So far China has suffered only mild punishment for its enormous support for Russia. This month the EU imposed sanctions on two small Chinese banks for facilitating crypto-currency transactions to help Russia evade sanctions.
President Donald Trump imposed a tariff of 50 per cent on imports from India as punishment for its high level of oil imports from Russia. But he has not done this for China.
Diplomats say that, within the Chinese government, some criticise Xi for his strong pro-Russia policy. They say that, over the long term, China’s most important trade, technology and investment partners are the EU, the U.S., Japan and South Korea and that it is against Beijing’s interest to antagonise them.
But Xi is determined to pursue his friendship with Putin. He will receive a red-carpet welcome in Beijing.
Both Russia and Ukraine are preparing for a long war. Putin’s conditions for ending the war are completely unacceptable to Kyiv.
So, as the war drags on, China’s role in it will only increase in importance.
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