Thousands of Lorries Wait at Russian-Kazakh border

Since mid-September, thousands of lorries have been waiting at border posts between Kazahkstan and Russia, carrying mostly Chinese goods that are badly needed by military and non-military factories and ordinary Russians, because of increased customs checks.

Lenta.ru website put the number of lorries at 2,500, many carrying electronics, drone components and Western-branded goods that could fall under export restrictions. Kazakh customs officers have intensified inspections of cargoes for Russia and Belarus suspected of being used to circumvent sanctions.

Russian newspaper Kommersant quoted a source in the trucking industry as putting the backlog at around 7,500 vehicles. The traffic jams have been growing since mid-September, as customs officials from both sides intensify inspections. It quoted Maxim Emelin, a logistics executive, as saying: “the gridlock could reflect a broader policy shift from Kazakhstan. It is safe to say that this is not a temporary glitch, but more likely a new reality – tighter controls and greater compliance with Western sanctions.”

This is bad news for Russia’s industry, especially its arm manufacturers that are heavily dependent on parts and components from China and other Asian countries shipped via third countries. Chinese materials are widely used to make drones and other weapons. Beijing denies direct help to Russia’s war effort, saying that its exports are dual-use.

Over the last three months, Russia’s oil and gas industry has been badly hit by waves of Ukrainian drone attacks. The Ukrainian military say that they have struck 21 per cent of Russia’s refining capacity, including plants hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border. On October 15, Russia’s seaborne fuel exports fell to their lowest level since the start of the invasion in February 2022, to 1.88 million barrels a day, Bloomberg reported. The attacks have also led to shortages of fuel for ordinary Russians, with queues of more than 100 vehicles outside petrol stations and some rationing sales or closing completely.

The falling world price of oil is another negative for Russia. Earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that oil prices were set to decline as global supply growth outpaces demand, with Brent crude forecast to fall from an average of US$69 a barrel in 2025 to an average of US$52 in 2026.

EU Today said 99 per cent of trucks carrying sensitive goods faced intensive checks and that this was a crisis that could reshape trade between China, Kazakhstan and Russia and the flow of dual-use goods across the region. Orda, a Kazakh news website, said that the worst congestion was at three crossings – Zhelkuar, Zhaisan and Mamlyutka.

Neither Moscow nor Astana have given an official explanation for the slowdown.

A U.S. security analyst, Jason Jay Smart, said: “Kazakhstan is finally enforcing sanctions because it sees the cost of helping Russia rising fast. Its growing dependence on Western finance is shaping its policy choices.”

On September 22, U.S. locomotive parts maker Wabtec reached a US$4.2 billion agreement with Kazakhstan under which the Pennsylvania-headquartered company will provide the central Asian country with 300 locomotives. The agreement was made after a call between President Donald Trump and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

Since the start of Russia’s invasion, Tokayev has been walking a tightrope in relations between China, the United States and Russia. China and Russia were his country’s biggest trading partners in 2024.

He has refused to recognise the annexation of Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine and welcomed hundreds of thousands of Russians fleeing Putin’s mobilisation.

Of its population of 21 million in 2025, about 15 per cent are ethnic Russians. This gives Putin the same excuse for an invasion as he used for Ukraine. Kazakhstan’s armed forces number 110,000 active personnel, with 135,000 in reserve.

Public opinion in Kazakhstan was stunned by the invasion. A recent report by the Centre of International Relations and Sustainable Development in Astana said: “Horrified by the atrocities of the war, the population has undergone a significant shift in its perception of Russia. No previous event or Western media report has inflicted as much damage on Russia’s reputation as its invasion of Ukraine. Even if Moscow manages to maintain close ties with the government, it has lost the hearts and minds of Kazakhstanis for years to come.”

So the most likely explanation for the stricter customs inspections by Kazakhstan is that Tokayev sees Russia as increasingly weak, poor, isolated and unable to win the war and that his country’s policy should more consider the interests of the West and its Asian partners.