Will French vote for convict as President?

Mark O'Neill July 09, 2026 16:20

On Tuesday, the veteran candidate of France’s far right party announced her candidacy for the presidential election next year, despite a conviction for stealing money from the European Parliament.

Marie Le Pen leads the Rassemblement National (National Rally), the country’s most popular party with support from more than 30 per cent of the voters and 123 of the 577 seats in the National Parliament.

Her announcement followed a dramatic day in a Paris court. The judges found her and 23 allies guilty of embezzling four million euros of taxpayers’ money for use by her party between 2004 and 2016.

But they shortened a ban that would have barred her from the election in April/May next year. They ordered her to wear an electronic bracelet for 12 months. This may lead to restrictions such as a travel ban or a curfew.

So the question is whether a majority of French voters choose a convicted felon as president.

“Yes, this is possible,” said Laurence Le Blanc, a bookseller. “There is a lack of good candidates from the centre or the left, someone who could inspire the nation. It is a very sad situation for France.”

Le Pen ran in the presidential elections of 2012, 2017 and 2022, obtaining 18 per cent, 21.3 per cent and 34 per cent of the votes respectively. In 2022, she made it into the second and final round and received 41.6 per cent, losing to current president Emmanuel Macron.

The verdict of the three judges on Tuesday provoked protest from Le Pen’s political opponents. They confirmed her criminal conviction but shortened her sentence on the grounds that she did not take the stolen money for her own personal use.

Her opponents said that, since the judges did not reverse the conviction, they should not have reduced the sentence.

Several factors favour Le Pen in her bid to become the most far right president in French history.

One is the lack of a strong opponent. More than 30 people have declared their interest in becoming a candidate, from all over the political spectrum.

In the French system, if no candidate receives more than 50 per cent in the first round of voting, the top two enter the second round.

If the votes were split among many candidates, Le Pen could fight the second round against Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the far-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed). He received 21.95 per cent of the votes in the 2022 presidential election,

Aged 74 and a former Trotskyite, Melanchon is a highly polarising figure in France. Running against him alone, Le Pen would win.

Second is anger against incumbent Emmanuel Macron for his elitist and authoritarian style of government. People see him as cut off from the concerns of ordinary people.

His biggest mistake came in June 2024, when he dissolved the National Assembly, in an attempt to secure a majority for his party. He got the opposite result, with the Parliament divided into three competing blocs that has made government extremely difficult.

Third is widespread discontent over immigration. Of France’s population of 69 million, 9.6 million were born abroad, and the number is rising each year.

Many blame the migrants for excessive pressure on housing, education and other public services. They see Muslims as unwilling to integrate into mainstream society. Many migrants live in crowded housing estates with high unemployment, crime and drug use.

In September 2024, in Paris, a Moroccan living illegally in France and with a deportation order against him raped and killed a 19-year-old French woman.

In June 2026, five young men lynched and killed a 17-year-old teenager in Narbonne and posted a video of the crime online. This led to mass protests by people who believed the attackers were immigrants. The police did not confirm this.

The RN says it would end birthright citizenship and process asylum claims outside France. It would reserve employment, social housing and welfare benefits for French citizens and expel undocumented immigrants and foreign criminals.

“My first measure as French president would be to reinstate France’s borders,” said Le Pen. “I tell immigrants: ‘if you come to our country, do not expect to be taken care of, to be looked after and for your children to be educated without charge. No more playtime.”

She has never been closer to the presidency than today.

Mark O'Neill

A Hong Kong-based writer, teacher and speaker.