Why China's falling birth rate is worrisome
According to figures recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China's population exceeded 1.4 billion in 2019.
However, the number of newborns recorded last year only stood at 14.65 million, the third straight year of decline.
What's even more worrying is that the national birth rate in 2019 dropped to its lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, with an average only 10.48 babies born per 1,000 people. This was far lower than the replacement level of fertility necessary to sustain the natural population growth in China.
In other words, China is now facing both a rapidly aging population and a continuously shrinking birth rate.
Despite the country's economic miracle and rapid growth over the past four decades, its current GDP per capita is only one-third that of South Korea, and only a fourth of Japan's.
So while China still has a long way to go before it can truly become a developed country, its birth rate is actually dropping faster than that of the developed world.
This means a shrinking labor force, skyrocketing healthcare and social welfare expenditures, and economic slowdown in the long run.
The Chinese are “getting old before becoming rich”. This social phenomenon may turn out to be Beijing’s greatest challenge in the coming days.
Experts have warned that from now until 2030, China's shrinking population is likely to cost the country half a percentage point in annual GDP growth year by year.
And if this scenario takes place, based on its 6.1 percent in GDP growth last year, China will follow the footsteps of the “Old World” and become a “low-growing” country in 10 years’ time.
In order to achieve the “China Dream”, perhaps what our state leaders badly need to do right now is to jump-start the country’s birth rate and secure a growing labor force.
This article appeared in the Hong Kong Economic Journal on Jan 23
Translation by Alan Lee
– Contact us at [email protected]
RT/CG
-
Green buildings cool down the city Dr. Winnie Tang
According to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently, global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping
-
Heat in May but can’t get away Ben Kwok
Nothing we can do to stop the early heat wave that hits Hong Kong and China. Except of course you turn on the air-conditioner 24 hours a day, or go to another country. I chose the latter. Here I am
-
One day, two mountains in Hong Kong Ben Kwok
Heavy rain poured again this morning in Guangdong and I was stuck at a building near the East station to catch the first high-speed train back to Hong Kong. A security guard approached this puzzled
-
Not a Happy Valley! Ben Kwok
Bad news does not come singly in Happy Valley! Days after Hong Kong Jockey Club suspended the two jockeys Vagner Borges and Silvestre de Sousa for their betting offences, more shocking news came from
-
Crowdsourced maps can enhance city’s efficiency and flexibility Dr. Winnie Tang
Although Britain's global influence has dwindled, its soft power should not be underestimated. The coronation of King Charles III is the latest showcase of its great marketing which, as The Economist
