President Trump or King Trump?

Michael Chugani November 20, 2024 16:24

Don't predict what American voters will do. Time and again, they have confounded even the most reputable pollsters. All the polls leading up to the November 5 elections showed the Republican Party’s Donald Trump and the Democratic Party’s Kamala Harris in too tight a race to call. But the country woke up the next morning to learn Trump crushed Harris.

He easily won the Electoral College vote. He won all seven battleground states that pollsters said were a toss-up between him and Harris. He won the popular vote, the first time a Republican president has done that in 20 years. His Republican Party won back Senate control from the Democrats. The party also retained its control of the House of Representatives.

Voters chose a 78-year-old White man convicted of covering up a sex scandal instead of a 60-year-old woman who is half Black and half Indian. Trump has mocked women, transgender people, Muslims, Chinese Americans, and Hispanics. He once said Africa had shithole countries.

Yet he increased his share of votes among Black men, Hispanics, Muslims, Asian Americans, and women. These groups loyally supported the Democratic Party before. Only Blacks, especially Black women, overwhelmingly stayed loyal to Harris. Trump’s astounding victory shows a seismic shift in the American electorate.

His supporters had always been conservatives, Whites, Evangelicals, and pro-business groups. But Trump reshaped the Republican Party to include the working class and people without college degrees who normally voted Democrat.

Harris’s campaign promise of unity instead of division along racial, gender, and political lines didn’t motivate voters. She lost despite endorsements from megastars Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and others. She warned Trump would erode democracy, rule as an autocrat, and further restrict abortion rights. But voters cared more about inflation, the economy, and illegal immigration, issues that Trump campaigned on.

A New York Times columnist wondered if Trump had changed America or revealed it. He concluded Trump revealed America’s true face. Voters elected him despite his insults and racial taunts. They twice rejected a woman presidential candidate, Democrats Harris and Hillary Clinton who both lost to Trump. They didn’t care that he tried to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory and indirectly urged supporters to storm the Congress.

The Democratic Party now finds itself in the wilderness. Blacks, Hispanics, women, and the working class, which formed the base of the party, felt they had been taken for granted. They concluded the party had become too elitist, too liberal left, and too out of touch.

Trump has become the most powerful American president in modern times. He controls the White House and both houses of Congress. Those he chose as cabinet members and top officials have pledged total loyalty to him. A Trump-friendly Supreme Court ruled last July that former and current presidents cannot be prosecuted for crimes that were official acts. As president, he can pardon himself or ask his attorney general to nullify his sex scandal conviction and many other pending charges against him.

That effectively makes Trump both president and king with a mandate from the people. It allows him to rule the way he wants. A New York Times headline said: “America Hires a Strongman”. His goal is to remold America to his liking, warn the world the US will no longer tolerate unfair trade, and make clear to allies they must increase military spending if they want US protection.

He has filled his incoming administration with the most anti-China hawks to date. His picks for the CIA, Defense Secretary, and National Security Adviser are all anti-China. Most worrying for Beijing and Hong Kong is his choice of Senator Marco Rubio, twice sanctioned by China, as Secretary of State. Rubio staunchly supports Taiwan and Hong Kong’s democracy protesters.

He sponsored legislation to close Hong Kong’s trade offices in the US, advocated sanctions against Hong Kong and mainland officials, demanded the State Department ban the US-sanctioned Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu from attending last year’s APEC summit in San Franscico, and considers China as America’s biggest enemy.

No one knows what the unpredictable Trump will do. Trade tariffs against China are almost certain, but they may not be as high as the 60 percent he threatened. Trump’s accusation that Taiwan stole America’s chip industry is likely a warning that Taipei, which Congress supports, must buy more US weapons. NATO and Asian allies know Trump means what he said about increasing defense spending.

China, the second largest economic and military superpower, which the US believes wants to be the top superpower, is the wild card. Trump’s best card is making deals. He could make a deal that China buys more US goods, lifts sanctions against Rubio, and releases Apple Daily founder Jimmy Lai Chee-ying in return for lifting sanctions against Hong Kong and mainland officials and allowing Hong Kong’s trade offices to remain in the US.

It's a workable political compromise. Can China accept releasing Lai after Beijing and Hong Kong have already rejected US demands as interference in their domestic affairs? Will China lift sanctions against Rubio after the US banned the sanctioned Lee Ka-chiu from attending last year’s APEC summit in California? Will the anti-China Congress bow to Trump’s deal making? Time will tell.

Michael Chugani

A Hong Kong-born American citizen who has worked for many years as a journalist in Hong Kong, the USA and London.