Can Europe avoid a second Munich Agreement?

Mark O'Neill February 17, 2025 18:06

In September 1938, Britain and France agreed to give Nazi Germany control of the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia without a fight. It was called the Munich Agreement, or the Munich Betrayal by the Czechs and Slovaks. Their country was not represented at the talks.

This week in Saudia Arabia the foreign ministers of the United States and Russia will meet to discuss an end to Russia’s three-year invasion of Ukraine. Neither Ukraine nor European countries will be present. President Donald Trump has already conceded two of Moscow’s main war aims – no return to the borders before the invasion and no membership for Ukraine in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

The nations of Europe face the possibility that the largest European agricultural country, with its most powerful army, might fall into the hands of Vladimir Putin, an international war criminal.

In this story, Putin is Adolf Hitler. After taking over the Sudetenland, Hitler occupied the rest of Czechoslovakia, then invaded Poland and conquered the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. Similarly, Putin wants to occupy the whole of Ukraine and, if he can, other countries that formed part of the Soviet Union that collapsed in 1991.

During the 1930s, France and Britain had several opportunities to confront Hitler. At that time, they had superior armies and economies to that of Germany. But they let the opportunity pass, with tragic consequences for Europe and the world.

The shadow of Munich 1938 hangs heavily over the eight leaders who gathered in Paris on Monday (today) at the invitation of President Emmanuel Macron. They are the heads of government of Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark and Poland, plus the heads of EU institutions and NATO.

The minimum they can offer is European troops to Ukraine, to monitor a ceasefire and line of demarcation between the two sides. They must be prepared to do it even without the presence of American troops. In 1938, Britain and France were unwilling to provide soldiers to Czechoslovakia to confront a German invasion because they wanted to appease Hitler and avoid war with him.

At the weekend, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “Britain is ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary … U.S. support will remain critical and a US security guarantee is essential for lasting peace.”

Addressing the annual Security Conference in – ironically – Munich on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “the time has come for a European army to be created. Our army alone is not enough, we need your support.”

One reason for Hitler’s success was bluff, making Britain and France believe that his army and economy were stronger than they actually were. Like Hitler, Putin runs a dictatorship. This means the collection of accurate data difficult, if not impossible. Official statistics are often inaccurate.

In 2023, Russia’s GDP was US$2.012 trillion, less than one ninth of that of the European Union, with US$18.591 trillion. In the 2025 budget, Russia will spend 43 per cent on defence and internal security.

According to Ukrainian figures, Russia had as, of February 1, lost 839,040 troops, including killed, wounded, captured, missing and deserters. It had lost 9,902 tanks and 20,653 armoured personnel vehicles. It is so short of manpower that it had hired 12,000 North Korean soldiers to fight the Ukrainians.

They have been given fake Russian ID cards, similar to those of Russians who live in its Far East and look Korean. But they cannot speak Russian. Neither the Russian nor North Korean media have reported their being sent to the front line. Anecdotes say that their families have been moved to a special area in North Korea where they cannot have contact with other people.

Dr Boris Volodarsky, a former captain of the Spetsnav GRU of the Russian military who is now a British historian, said: “From what I see in daily reports, every settlement (town, village) which is outside the Moscow Automobile Ring Road (the so-called MKAD) is living more or less in the 19th-early 20th century: no water, gas, in many places electricity, internet and so on. Ukraine has the strongest military in Europe. NATO would greatly benefit from its membership.”

Videos on the Internet show Russian soldiers injured and on crutches walking or hobbling toward Ukrainian defensive positions where their commanders have sent them. Others show injured soldiers being taken from their chairs and carried by force into military vehicles to take them to the front. Wounded men appeal to Putin not to send them, saying that they are unfit for battle.

The best outcome for Ukraine would be membership of NATO. This would mean that, if Russia attacked Ukraine, it would be an attack on all the NATO members.

Like Hitler, Putlin uses the threat of war, against NATO, including nuclear weapons, as his best means of persuasion. Since the invasion started, he has several times threatened a nuclear attack, but never carried it out. European leaders are very fearful of such an attack.

Many quotes of Hitler could come from the mouth of Putin:

“If you win, you need not have to explain...If you lose, you should not be there to explain! … The victor will never be asked if he told the truth.”

“The receptivity of the masses is very limited, their intelligence is small, but their power of forgetting is enormous. In consequence of these facts, all effective propaganda must be limited to a very few points and must harp on these in slogans until the last member of the public understands what you want him to understand by your slogan.”

Mark O'Neill

A Hong Kong-based writer, teacher and speaker.