Is this the end of Communist Cuba?

Havana, capital of Cuba, has power cuts 18 hours a day. The government has shut universities and secondary schools. Hospitals do not have fuel to power their generators. Foreign airlines no longer fly to the island due to a lack of aviation fuel there.

Last week the state-run tobacco monopoly announced the suspension of the 26th Annual Cigar Festival due over five days in late February. It normally attracts more than 1,000 guests from 80 countries. In 2024, Cuba earned US$827 million from cigar exports.

For the first time in its history, the country is receiving no oil from its two principal suppliers, Venezuela and Mexico, on the orders of U.S. President Donald Trump.

On January 22, the Wall Street Journal quoted unnamed American officials as saying that Trump aimed to remove Cuba’s leadership and was seeking government insiders willing to cut a deal and remove the Communist regime.

At a party at the U.S. residence in Havana on January 28, the American charge d’affaires Mike Hammer said: “the Cubans have complained for years about ‘the blockade’, but now there is going to be a real blockade.”

The U.S. has wanted to control Cuba since 1898, when it invaded the island to expel the Spanish colonial rulers. In 1902, it granted independence but retained the right to intervene in its affairs and supervise its finances and foreign affairs. In area, Cuba is the largest country in the Caribbean and only 145 kilometres from Key West on the southern tip of Florida.

For the first 50 years of Cuba’s independence, the U.S. was the biggest foreign investor, in hotels, restaurants, casinos, brothels, sugar and other farm products. By the 1950s, the island had one of the highest standards of living in Latin America. U.S. and other foreign investors dominated the economy, controlling 75 per cent of arable land, 90 per cent of essential services and 40 per cent of sugar production.

A revolution led by Fidel Castro took power in January 1959. He legalised the Communist Party, expropriated thousands of hectares of farmland, including that owned by U.S. landowners, nationalised private business and became a close ally of the Soviet Union.

In 1960, Washington imposed wide-ranging sanctions. They have remained in place ever since, implemented by both Republican and Democratic administrations.

The most bitter opponents of the Communist government are the 1.2 million Cuban exiles who live in Greater Miami. Among them is the family of Marco Rubio, Secretary of State and Nation Security Adviser to President Trump. His parents moved to Florida in 1956 and planned to return to Cuba until the Castro revolution.

Rubio is the most high-ranking Cuban-American to hold public office in Washington. It is his visceral hatred of the Communist regime that is driving policy.

The seizure of Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro in Caracas on January 3 was the first step. During the operation, the U.S. military killed 32 Cubans protecting Maduro. This gave Trump control over Venezuelan oil exports, enabling him to stop shipments to Cuba.

What is the U.S. plan? In an interview with Bloomberg this month, Rubio said: “giving the people of Cuba more freedom, not just political freedom but economic freedom, was a potential way forward.”

In Mexico city, U.S. officials have held discussions with General Alejandro Castro Espin, son of Cuba’s former president Raul Castro and nephew of Fidel, but without significant progress so far.

Foreign diplomats in Havana told the Guardian of U.K.: “there is talk of human rights and that this is the year Cuba changes – but little talk of what happens afterwards.”

Most likely is the “Venezuelan model” – no land invasion by American forces, close relations with Washington, policies more favourable to the U.S, and development of the private economy and foreign, especially U.S., investment.

In 2021, the Cuban government legalised private companies. There are now over 11,000, in retail, food production, and services. They employ 1.6 million people, 40 per cent of the workforce.

In 2024, the private sector accounted for more retail sales by value than the state for the first time since the 1959 revolution. Official figures showed the "non-state" sector was responsible for 55 per cent of retail sales of goods and services in 2024, up from 44 per cent in 2023.

Since 2019, the state-run economy has shrunk, contracting by 11 per cent. It is marked by frequent blackouts, goods shortages, and high inflation. The state operates thousands of retail outlets offering a limited variety of goods, including food, hygiene products and clothing.

Will the Rubio family return to Cuba and open a business there?