Future Russia will shrink, lose Siberia to China
The Russia of the future will shrink to its pre-1550 borders and lose Siberia to China. It will be called “Moscovie”.
That is the vision of “Outpost”, a science fiction novel written by Dmitry Glukhovsky, one of Russia’s most famous modern writers. It was published in English in November 2024 and French in February this year.
“This is not science fiction but a probable future,” he said. “The book is a metaphorical fairy tale describing the present and a future very close for Russia.”
It has lost the eastern and southern lands conquered by the Tsars starting with Ivan the Terrible in the 1550s. They will become separate kingdoms and Siberia part of China.
Born in Moscow in June 1979, Glukhovsky lives in exile after being sentenced in absentia to eight years in prison for opposing the invasion of Ukraine. Born to a Jewish father, he has a degree in Journalism and International Relations at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
His most famous works are Metro 2033, 2034 and 2035, post-apocalyptic novels, which have been turned into multi-media franchises.
“Before the invasion of Ukraine, this disintegration of Russia was one of the great preoccupations of the Kremlin,” he said. “The only raison d’etre of Russia is to expand, invade and conquer. There is no other objective. When the conquests stop, there is a loss of faith in the future and the start of disintegration.”
In “Outpost”, the characters suffer from amnesia. No-one knows what happened in the past, except that there was a great catastrophe.
This reflects the present. Russians are told that World War Two began on June 22, 1941 when the Nazi Wehrmacht invaded their country. In fact, it began on September 1, 1939, when the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany jointly invaded Poland. “Russia can only be presented as victim, not aggressor,” Glukhovsky said.
“This amnesia is truly evil and destructive. If we do not know the past, we do not know who is really responsible. When we present ourselves as victors, liberators or victims, we can deny all historical responsibility in the wars we have started with other countries. This has helped to justify the war in Ukraine.”
Like Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin uses hate speech. He employs it against the Ukrainians, to justify bombing civilian targets and executing prisoners of war.
Glukhovsky said that the Russian elite had an ambiguous view of China.
In June 2025, the New York Times reported that the FSB – Russia’s secret service – had written an eight-page report saying that China was a serious threat and trying to recruit Russian spies, obtain sensitive military technology and lure disaffected Russian scientists.
Glukovsky said: “the great fear of Moscow is that China has a great need of natural resources and regards with much interest the almost empty lands of eastern Siberia.”
He said that, before the invasion, the Russian economic and administrative elite took their holidays in Europe, invested and hid their money there and sent their children to study there. This became impossible after February 2022.
“So they turned to China and marvel at its technological success. It is futurist with its electric cars and facial recognition. This is the future. There is a real schizophrenia in the Russian elite. There is a fear of being invaded by China and an admiration fed by the deception of being punished by the Europeans,” he said.
Russia’s economy is in decline, with half of the state budget going to the military, which brings no economic benefit except to heavy industry. Higher taxes to fund the war are closing many small businesses.
“The situation will not lead to an immediate revolution. Russians are used to adapting. I remember, as a child, queues of four or five hours in front of the shops of Moscow. We survived on salaries of US$100 a month,” he said.
But this weakens the regime, whose legitimacy rests on money and paying its citizens. This was why Putin does not dare to call a general mobilisation, which would require people to believe in the war they were fighting.
“He has no confidence in his people. He prefers to hire mercenaries and send them to die for a contract, rather than to count on people who fight for ideological reasons or faith in their country.”
-
Government rewrites history of Hong Kong Mark O'Neill
The government has rewritten the history of Hong Kong, saying that it was never a colony because British rule was illegal and was never democratic and downplaying the events of 1989. “The Hong Kong
-
Hong Kong Turns Green for a Day Mark O'Neill
On one day a year, March 17, the world, including Hong Kong, turns green. It is St Patrick’s Day, the National Day of Ireland, when cities around the world hold parades, balls, sports competitions
-
First two HK martyrs in Ukraine war were “so brave, so selfless” Mark O'Neill
On a cold Sunday afternoon, January 11, in west London, a large crowd of British, Ukrainian and Hong Kong people gathered to say goodbye to the first Hong Kong martyrs of the Ukrainian war. “I pay my
-
How the Irish Made Hong Kong Mark O'Neill
They provided nine of Hong Kong’s 28 governors, cured the city of tuberculosis, built and managed schools that have transformed the lives of tens of thousands of its people and won four Olympic
-
HK people in UK fear new immigration rules Mark O'Neill
Hong Kong migrants to Britain have launched a nationwide lobbying campaign to protect their future after the government published proposals to narrow their path to citizenship. Since 2021, 160,000