Is Russia losing the war?
Last month four Russian soldiers crossed into northeast Ukraine and were attacked by drones. Then the Ukrainians sent a drone with a loudspeaker which ordered them to surrender. They did and walked behind the drone until they were captured by Ukrainian soldiers.
In January, three Russians walked out of a building and surrendered to a ground Ukrainian robot armed with a machine gun.
Ukraine’s widespread use of drones and robotics, at no risk to its men, is one reason why Russia is losing the war.
Oleksandr Syrski, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said that his side’s drones were flying 11,000 combat missions a day, with a range of up to 120 kilometres.
“From December to March, the drones killed more Russians each month than they were able to recruit,” he said. “In March, drones and robotics caused 35,000 Russian casualties. We have 30 per cent more drones than they do.”
In March, Russia made no territorial gains for the first month since its invasion began in February 2022, according to the Institute for the Study of War in Washington D.C.
Drones are also greatly damaging Russian oil sector, the most important sector of the economy. Such attacks began at the start of 2024 and caused gasoline shortages at the pump in Russian cities.
The campaign expanded along with a growing fleet of long-range drones. By last September, the strikes had destroyed or damaged 20 percent of Russia’s refining equipment. The most significant strikes hit the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, which handle roughly 40 percent of the country’s seaborne crude exports.
Local authorities reported damage at both ports. The number of tankers loading oil there this April has fallen sharply, according to an analysis of trading activity by Bloomberg.
Images of the drone operators illustrate the future of war. They sit in underground bunkers away from the front line, staring at screens which show the drone and the target they are pursuing. After a successful hit, they punch fists with each other.
“The first times I killed people, I found it difficult to bear,” said operator Mykola. “But not now. It has become routine. The more we eliminate the better. They are invading our country. We are desensitised.”
These attacks are having a severe impact on the Russian economy. On April 9, the Ministry of Finance announced a budget deficit of 4.576 trillion roubles or GDP in the first quarter. The budget law targets a deficit of 3.786 trillion or 1.6 per cent of GDP for the whole year.
In the period, oil and gas revenues fell 45.4 per cent to 1.443 trillion rubles thanks to falling oil prices, the Ministry said.
For the full year, the budget deficit is expected to exceed 3.5 per cent or even 4.4 per cent of GDP. The defence budget devours 40 per cent of all public spending.
The IMF has forecast Russia’s full-year GDP growth at about 0.8 per cent, down from one per cent last year. This is due to interest rates of more than 15 per cent, extreme labour shortages and falling consumer demand.
The manpower shortage is acute. According to Ukrainian figures, as of mid-April, a total of 1.3 million have been killed or severely injured in the war. Since February 2022, up to one million working-age men have left the country in opposition to the war or to avoid mobilisation.
The fertility rate is 1.4 children per woman, far below the 1.2 threshold needed to keep the population at its current level.
MMC Norilak Nickel, Russia’s largest mining company, is short of 10,000 employees in Siberia, about 10 per cent of its entire workforce. Companies are seeking workers from India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
The latest good news for Ukraine was the victory of Peter Magyar as the new Prime Minister of Hungary in a general election on Sunday and the defeat of Viktor Orban, a close ally of Vladimir Putin.
Magyar will approve an EU loan of 90 billion euro ($105 billion) loan that Kyiv urgently needs to fund the war. Orban had blocked the loan.
"One should not call Magyar pro-Ukrainian - he isn't - but he is not anti-Ukrainian, unlike Orban, and that's already great," said Oleksiy Honcharenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker with the European Solidarity Party. "Putin has lost his main ally in Europe."
Ask Polish people of their greatest victory over Russia. They will answer “The Miracle on the Vistula”, when their army unexpectedly defeated an invading Soviet army in August 1920 on the outskirts of Warsaw, close to the Vistula river. It saved Poland from Communism.
Are we witnessing “The Miracle on the Dnipro”?
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