Poland Economy to Surpass U.K., France

The country of Poland disappeared from the map for 123 years until 1918 and was ruled by the Nazis and the Soviets for 50 years until 1989.

Now its per capita GDP has surpassed that of Spain and, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), will overtake those of UK, France and Italy by 2030. In February this year, it joined the G7 as an associate member.

“Warsaw is one of the most dynamic cities in Europe,” said Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, the son of a pianist. “The growth is incredible. There is a special energy, a continuous wish to make things move.

“During the Communist period (1945-1989), this energy was suffocated. It was very difficult to fulfil our dreams, to build and innovate. Everything has accelerated after the fall of Communism,” he said.

In 2025, Poland’s GDP grew 3.5 per cent, the highest of any large country in the European Union. This year it is expected to grow by 3.3 to 3.7 per cent. Household wealth and living standards are 81 per cent of the EU average. Unemployment is 2.6 per cent.

The IMF based its predictions for 2030 on Poland’s continuing its rapid growth, while the major EU economies maintain their meagre pace.

The economic miracle took off after Poland joined the EU in May 2004. Over the next 20 years, it received 175 billion euros from the Union. Its exports increased six-fold and its agricultural exports 10-fold.

“No other country in the region has taken advantage of its presence in the European Union as we have, this is a success of Polish women and men,” said Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, Minister for Funds and Regional Policy at an event to mark the anniversary in April 2024.

It showed the determination of Poles to make up for the 45 lost years of Communism that was imposed on them by the Soviet army in 1944. No country in Europe resisted Communism more than the Poles.

With Ireland, Poland has been the country that best utilised the money from Europe to improve its infrastructure and not waste it on corruption. It has a welcoming business environment and well-educated workforce. Strong domestic demand, serving 37 million people, has been another driver of the economy.

It is a major supplier of manufacturing components to Western Europe, with thousands of adaptable SMEs that have strong ties to the German economy. It has significant Foreign Direct Investment and growing high-technology and renewable energy sectors.

One measure of success has been the return of Polish emigres abroad. They flooded into Britain when it opened its doors to citizens of Central and Eastern Europe in 2004. Since 2021, 117.000 of those in Britain have come back, against 38,000 who have gone there.

Dominika Pszczolkowska, researcher at the University of Warsaw, said that, in 2006, salaries in the UK were more than five times those in Poland. “Now UK salaries are twice as high, and the cost of living there more expensive.

“The opportunities to start your own business or invest in a career here are real. They come back with linguistic, financial and professional skills that open doors for them,” she said.

In April 2025, the government announced “A National Strategy of Co-operation with Polish abroad”, with a budget of 150 million euros, to attract some of the 22 million expatriates to come home.

Foreign Minister Radeslaw Sikorski said: “our historic success permits us to provide an attractive invitation to our compatriots abroad.”

The shadow over this promising future remains the Great Satan to the East – the Russian Tsar occupied eastern Poland from 1793 to 1917, followed by the Bolsheviks and now Vladimir Putin.

During the Communist period, Poles could not fight the Soviet army and KGB with guns. So they used humour instead to combat their oppressors. Here are two examples of their jokes.

Putin’s secretary enters his office and says that he has good and bad news to report. “Let us hear the good news first,” says Putin. “You were elected president.” “And the bad news?” “No-one voted for you.”

Four Soviet leaders – Lenin, Stalin, Khruschev and Brezhnev – are sitting in a train in Siberia that has not moved for six hours.

Lenin says that, as leaders, they should do something. “I propose that everyone get out of the train and push.”

Stalin says: “bring me the train drivers and other staff and execute them.” Khruschev says that, while he has many ideas, he is so angry at being denounced after his fall from power that he will not express them.

Only Brezhnev is left. “Everyone lean back in their seat and move left and right. This will give the impression that the train is moving.”