Trump’s Republican Party Faces Likely Defeat in Upcoming Congres

Michael Chugani October 16, 2026 06:00

America's midterm Congressional elections on November 3 are shaping up to be the most tectonic in recent memory. President Donald Trump's Republican Party is in panic mode. It is running scared that Democrats will win back control of the US Congress.

Republicans now have slim majorities in both Houses of Congress. But polls show Democrats will win back control of the House of Representatives possibly by a wide margin and is within striking distance of retaking the Senate.

Democrat legislators in full control of Congress would have a seismic impact on Trump, his top officials, and his family. They would be in dire straits even if Democrats win back just the House of Representatives.

Democrat legislators have said they will hold multiple hearings into Trump's alleged wrongdoings once they control the House of Representatives. Senate Democrats have likewise promised investigations if they retake the Senate.

They have said they intend to probe Trump's bypassing of Congressional approval for his Iran war, tearing down of the White House East Wing to build his multi-million-dollar ballroom financed mostly with taxpayer money, and his trade tariffs.

Trump’s Justice Department is under heavy attack for ignoring some court rulings. Several judges have sternly warned government lawyers about their non-compliance of rulings.

Trump is accused of widespread corruption involving him, his family, and his inner circle. He made over US$2 billion last year, his first year as president in his second term, through his cryptocurrency, meme coins, and other dealings. His earnings for this year are not yet in.

He also accepted a US$400 million luxury Boeing 747 as a gift from the Qatar government, which is considered highly unethical because Qatar could use the gift to influence Trump's foreign policy. Critics have accused his two adult sons of having used their father's status as US President to enrich themselves.

Past presidents have normally put their business holdings in a blind trust which they cannot influence during their presidency. But Trump has set up a revocable trust instead and made his eldest son the sole trustee. Unlike a blind trust, a revocable trust allows the owner or trustee to trade in stocks and manage other assets.

Serving presidents are allowed to choose a revocable trust instead of a blind trust. Latest financial disclosures showed Trump bought between US$1 million and US$5 million in SpaceX bonds just days before announcing a new space-travel policy to strengthen space transportation.

Trillionaire Elon Musk, a Trump ally, owns SpaceX which is the largest space launch company by far. The new policy is seen as benefiting Trump's bond investment in SpaceX, but the White House has denied a conflict of interest.

Federal conflict of interest law bans executive branch officials from stock trading and other financial transactions but exempts a sitting president and vice president. However, the STOCK Act of 2012 bans a sitting president, vice president, and executive branch officials from insider trading.

Presidents are required to publicly disclose individual stock trades and financial transactions. Latest disclosures show Trump traded US$3.2 billion in stocks since becoming president in January of last year, about three times the amount all members of Congress combined traded in.

He made over 21,000 stock purchases during that period, averaging about 34 trades a day. Although federal law does not ban a president from such trades, critics and ethics groups have slammed the trades as highly unethical.

Several proposed laws restrict or ban sitting presidents and vice presidents from trading in stocks. Some legislators also want to ban stock trade by members of Congress. But Congress has so far not passed any of these proposed laws.

Some Democrat legislators have said they will renew their push for laws banning a president and Congress members from trading while in office if they win control of both Houses of Congress next month.

Democrats are already cheering the polls that show them winning at least one House of Congress. Their confidence has been further boosted by a Republican funding group diverting campaign ad funds from Republican states such as North Carolina, which Republicans have essentially given up on winning.

The campaign ad funds are being diverted to Republican stronghold states such as Kansas, Texas, and South Carolina which have always voted Republican. The New York Times said Trump ally Elon Musk has spent US$276 million to help Republican candidates.

But polls show these heavily Republican states could elect Democrats despite huge campaign ad funds because of Trump's unpopularity, especially over his Iran war, which has raised food and gas prices.

A panicky Trump is now having to campaign for Republican candidates in Kansas and Texas, which is unheard of because he won those states by large margins in the 2024 presidential election against Democrat Kamala Harris.

Even though latest polls favor the Democrats, polls have often been wrong. Trump seems to have a knack for having the last laugh. Unless Congress passes legislation banning presidents from stock trades, Trump feels he has every right to trade in them even if Democrats win control of Congress. Legal experts agree even though such behavior is considered unethical.

Michael Chugani

A Hong Kong-born American citizen who has worked for many years as a journalist in Hong Kong, the USA and London.