Far Right in power in France, Germany – end of EU
If the Far Right take power in France and Germany, that will mean the end of the European Union and the return of the nationalism before World War Two.
That was the sombre assessment of two professors from the Geneva Graduate Institute (GGI) speaking at a discussion on EU-China relations at the Asia Society on Tuesday evening. They were Marie-Laure Salles, Director of the GGI, and Achim Wennmann, its director for Strategic Partnerships.
“War is at our door,” said Salles, who is French. “The war spirit is here. We need leaders with vision and responsibility. They are not on the far right. If we lose France and Germany to the far right, Europe is dead.”
Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party, is strong favourite to win the French presidential election in April and May 2027.
In September, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 44 per cent of the votes and 39 of 83 seats in the eastern region of Saxony-Anhalt, the closest a far-right party has come to holding power in a German state since World War Two. In national opinion polls, the AfD leads with 28 per cent, ahead of the ruling Christian Democrats/Christian Social Union with 21 per cent.
Salles said the U.S. and Russia were interfering in European elections, with the aim of weakening construction of the EU, “They prefer smaller, weaker nations. This construction has been exceptional and has given us no wars in 80 years. The war in Ukraine is infecting the (European) body and weakening its immune system.”
Wennmann said that Europeans governments were pre-occupied in supporting Ukraine and fighting Russia. “There is core investment in the military and democratic backsliding,” he said.
Money spent on rearmament is money that cannot be spent on education, health and housing and other sectors which the public in Europe is demanding.
Ronnie Chan, chairman of the Hong Kong Centre of the Asia Society, criticised Europe. “You specialise in navel-gazing, as if you are top of the food chain. You do not talk of China and little of the U.S.
“Why is your economy so weak? Your technology has fallen behind. You are being pushed from above by the U.S. and by China, with its EVs, batteries and wind turbines. You have less and less room to move. In AI, it is too late to catch up. You should buy from China and the U.S., and the U.S. is not trustworthy,” he said.
The EU is running a trade deficit of US$1 billion a day with China. EU leaders say that Chinese companies pose an existential threat to several sectors, including automobiles, machinery and chemicals.
Chan said that China should not export involution
(內卷, neijuan) – destructive competition.
“China could take over the world and wipe out Siemens, Volkswagen and Mercedes Benz. China and the EU have to work out how to avoid this,” he said.
He cited the example of the Japanese government and automakers in 1995 who believed they could take over 60 per cent of the U.S. market but limited themselves to 30 per cent in their own long-term interest.
He said that both the U.S. and Europe were broke. “The U.S. fought wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, at a cost of about US$6 trillion.”
Wennmann said that all wars were avoidable. “Every war is the choice of an individual politician, against the interests of a majority of his population. The wars in Ukraine, Yemen, Iran and Lebanon are all examples.”
The only good news for opponents of the Far Right in France was the decision this month of Christine Lagarde to resign as President of the European Central Bank in February 2027, nine months before her official term ends and two months before the first round of the presidential election.
Right-wing and centre parties have been unable to find a strong candidate able to challenge Le Pen. Lagarde has the gravitas and reputation to do this. In interviews, she has ruled running, citing her age of 70 and the personal sacrifice it would require.
Perhaps, to save the European Union, she could be persuaded.
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