21 January 2019

Jorge O. Mariscal

Regional Chief Investment Officer, Emerging Markets, UBS
  • With municipal elections scheduled for next March, the Erdogan government in Turkey is expected to continue catering to its voter base, reducing the outlook for significant fiscal reforms. Photo: Bloomberg

    Turkey: New politics, same old uncertainties

    - Jul 16, 2018 1:36pm
    Recep Tayyip Erdogan finally got what he wished for. On June 24, the Turkish leader got to keep his position in an election that completed the country’s transition to a presidential form of government, the ground...
  • The strong US economy, combined with higher commodity prices, has heightened concerns about inflation and a faster-than expected tightening in global monetary policy. Photo: Reuters

    Tactical retreat from emerging market assets

    - Jun 28, 2018 4:03pm
    Emerging market stocks have been victims of the noise and uncertainty that have dominated headlines this year. Several emerging countries have been in the midst of consequential elections where the surrounding sentiment is not always market-friendly....
  • The Mexican peso has depreciated against the greenback by about 3 percent over the past month. Photo: Reuters

    Mexican dance to the tune of NAFTA and elections

    - Jun 4, 2018 5:18pm
    US House Speaker Paul Ryan set May 17 as the deadline for the new NAFTA proposal to be submitted to congress under the trade promotion authority (TPA), the law covering congressional approval of such deals. TPA...
  • Fears of a stronger-than-expected surge in US interest rates and the US dollar appear overdone. Photo: Bloomberg

    Is it game over for emerging markets?

    - May 24, 2018 3:48pm
    After their stellar performance last year, emerging market assets have taken a back seat, and most have been in the red since the beginning of April. This is when the risk that had largely been at...
  • With the high court's decision, the electoral court is now very likely to disqualify Luiz Inacio "Lula" Da Silva from the presidential election in October. Photo: Reuters

    Brazil election moves on, but reform no guarantee

    - Apr 16, 2018 10:28am
    High drama engulfed Brazil recently after the supreme federal court ordered the country’s leading presidential candidate to prison until he exhausts all other avenues for appeal against a prior conviction. Former President Luiz Inacio “Lula” Da...
  • Turkey is implementing measures to mitigate the negative side-effects of rapid economic growth. Photo: Anaru/ Wikimedia Commons

    Turkish economy: Navigating the turning tides

    - Mar 5, 2018 10:18am
    We have been saying recently that investors should prepare for greater volatility as the world’s major central banks start to tighten the spigot of liquidity that has supported not only asset prices, but also the synchronized...
  • Cyril Ramaphosa was recently elected the new president of the ANC, South Africa's ruling party, which may pave the way for a return to economic prosperity. Photo: Reuters

    South Africa: Winds of change are blowing

    - Feb 5, 2018 4:06pm
    Last year was another challenging one for South Africa. Sluggish economic growth, political uncertainty, mounting fiscal pressure and weakening governance led two of the three largest credit rating agencies to push the country’s foreign currency rating...
  • Federal Reserve is expected to only gradually raise interest rates, and this suggests a softer US dollar regime. Photo: AFP

    Position for emerging market risk in 2018

    - Jan 9, 2018 3:04pm
    By the end of 2017, emerging market (EM) assets were on track to deliver their best performance since 2009. An environment of improved global economic growth, higher commodity prices, and still-easy liquidity conditions has driven a...
  • South Africa recently exited recession, but its outlook remains bleak, with expected GDP growth of less than 1 percent next year. Photo:

    A nation at a crossroads

    - Nov 10, 2017 3:38pm
    Come December, it will be South Africa’s turn to determine its future leadership, and in turn its economic and investment potential. The governing African National Congress (ANC) will elect a new president, and as the head...
  • Inflation in Mexico has recently spiked due mostly to the depreciation of the peso. Photo: Kuow

    Brazil and Mexico make interest rate history

    - Oct 13, 2017 11:35am
    Brazil and Mexico have long battled it out as heavyweights of the Latin American economies. For much of the new millennium, one defining feature of their rivalry is that Mexico has had lower interest rates than...
  • Africa has the world’s youngest and fastest-growing population. It has numerous drivers that could sustain an average annual growth rate of 4 percent. Photo: Joburg

    Tapping into the cradle of diversity

    - Sep 18, 2017 8:00am
    Africa is often labeled the “final investment frontier”. It consists of countries whose indicators of social, economic and financial development are relatively low, which translates into more upside potential than anywhere else on the planet. But...
  • South African equity, currency and bond markets would likely either react negatively if President Jacob Zuma's camp wins, or positively if the opposing camp prevails. Photo: Reuters

    South Africa gets a vote of no confidence

    - Aug 18, 2017 9:53am
    President Jacob Zuma survived a motion of no confidence this week, the latest of many attempts to unseat an administration besieged by allegations of corruption and economic mismanagement. The victory not only allows Zuma to remain...
  • In the US, markets increasingly think the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its balance sheet this year. Photo: Reuters

    Taming the tantrum

    - Jul 24, 2017 8:00am
    As we approach the 10th anniversary of the global financial crisis, we are also closer to what economists like to call policy normalization or “taking away the punchbowl.” This is the time when the world’s major...

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