China alarmed by North Korea’s entry into Ukraine war

Mark O'Neill November 06, 2024 22:00

China is alarmed by the entry of North Korean troops into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but has little leverage over its leader Kim Jong-un.

Ukraine has said Pyongyang has sent 12,000 soldiers into Russia and that the first contingent has started fighting on the front line in Kursk, in western Russia. The Ukraine army has held a portion of this region since early August.

Images on Youtube show North Korean troops training at Russian army bases and the first North Korean captured by Ukraine. Lying in a hospital bed with a serious injury to his left eye, he said that most of his comrades had been killed in an assault. “We have been tricked,” he said. “We were not told that this is what we would do. Putin has deceived our beloved leader Kim Jong-un.”

According to Ukrainian figures, Russia lost at least 1,000 soldiers a day killed or wounded during October, the highest daily death toll since the start of the war in February 2022. Desperate to avoid general mobilisation, President Vladimir Putin is eager to use non-Russian soldiers at the front.

“Beijing fears an intensification of the war,” said a western diplomat. “Will this lead to western countries sending soldiers to fight on the Ukrainian side and bring us closer to World War Three?
“Beijing’s other fear is what Kim will receive in exchange for this aid. Grain, oil and gas and other products, certainly. What he most wants is improved technology for his missile and nuclear programmes. This is a nightmare for Beijing,” he said.

Without China, North Korea would not exist. In October 1950, United Nations forces led by the United States had invaded North Korea and were advancing toward the Yalu River, the border with China.

On October 19 1950, Chinese forces crossed the Yalu and drove back the U.N. forces. They sustained enormous losses against an enemy better equipped and with unchallenged air superiority. By the summer of 1951, they had driven the enemy to the 38th Parallel, which became the border between the two Koreas two years later.

China’s Defence Minister Lin Biao opposed the intervention, saying that the country had not completely conquered the mainland and should not enter a war with the U.S. But Mao Zedong overruled him and sent Peng Dehuai to lead the Chinese forces.

Mao decided that the loss of tens of thousands of his soldiers was a price worth paying to keep U.S. and anti-Communist forces away from China’s border at the Yalu and that a buffer state was needed to protect China. That remains Beijing’s strategic calculation today.

Mao and his fellow leaders had close relations with Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea until his death in 1994. They shared a common experience in guerilla warfare and fighting the Japanese.
From 1927-1930, Kim attended secondary school in Jilin province and spoke Mandarin. His successor was his son Kim Jong-il, who ruled from 1994 to 2011.

While he did not speak Chinese, he had reasonable relations with the leaders in Beijing. They saw North Korea descending into economic decline and famine. They proposed that Kim follow China’s example of economic reform, while retaining one-party rule. They took Kim to visit Pudong and other districts that showed the remarkable economic success of China.

He was succeeded by his third son, Kim Jong-un, who was only 28 when he became the national leader in December 2011. Beijing considered him too young, inexperienced, a playboy and unfit for such an important position.

This anger increased when he ordered the assassination of his elder half-brother, Kim Jong-nan, in Kuala Lumpur airport in 2017 and the execution of his uncle and mentor, Jang Song-thaek, in 2013. Beijing had considered Jang a more suitable candidate as leader.

Kim’s priority has been to expand the country’s military and nuclear weapons programme, despite the protests of Beijing. He has visited China only four times since taking office.

Beijing’s advice to North Korea remains the same – reform the economy and improve the living standards of its people, make a stable country that will prosper over the long term and reach a modus vivendi with South Korea and Japan, to avoid a war and dissuade both from developing nuclear weapons.

Sending troops to Russia will have the opposite effect. The Korean People’s Army has 1.3 million men, ranking fifth in the world. If Putin demands it, Kim could send tens of thousands more soldiers to Russia.

This would bring millions of dollars into Kim’s military and nuclear budget and make a confrontation with Japan, South Korea and the United States more likely.

What can Beijing do to prevent this nightmare scenario?

Mark O'Neill

A Hong Kong-based writer, teacher and speaker.