Ireland will have highest GDP growth in EU in 2025

Mark O'Neill December 12, 2025 15:05

Ireland will have the highest GDP growth in the European Union this year, 10.7 per cent, leaving the government with a fourth year of surplus, at 10.25 billion euros.

Dr Nicholas O’Brien, the country’s ambassador to China, described the economic picture at a Christmas lunch of the Irish Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong on Thursday.

He preferred to use another measure of growth, Gross National Income star, which will reach 3.3 per cent this year. This excludes the substantial taxes paid by multinational companies based in Ireland.

In a forecast in mid-November, the European Commission said that Ireland’s GDP “would grow exceptionally by 10.7 per cent, largely due to strong export activity in the first year of the year.” That is eight times the EU average.

In the first half, “real GDP increased by 18.5 per cent, driven by pharmaceutical exports to the U.S., likely reflecting front-loading in anticipation of U.S. tariffs. The domestic economy also performed robustly, supported by strong private consumption and growth in modified investment,” the Commission said.

“Ireland's general government budget is set to register a surplus of 1.5 per cent in 2025, strongly supported by a buoyant growth in corporate tax revenues. The revenue from other tax categories has also proved resilient in the first half of the year, reflecting continued growth in the Irish economic activity despite a slowing global environment.,” it said.

O’Brien said that the government surplus was the envy of countries across Europe. The surpluses heavily depend on taxes from a small number of large multinational corporations, primarily in tech and pharma.

“In an unpredictable world, we offer stability and certainty, in fiscal and taxation policy,” he said. “EU membership is central to our policy, as is our education system. But we do not take it for granted. We want an open, rules-based trading system. We must be adaptable and seek new markets in Asia.”

China is Ireland’s largest trading partner in Asia. According to China’s Foreign Ministry, Ireland has maintained a trade surplus with China for several years. Bilateral trade reached US$22.9 billion in 2021, US$23.8 billion in 2022, and US$21.76 billion in 2023. In 2024, bilateral trade was US$23.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.7 per cent, with China’s exports to Ireland US$5.26 billion, up 20.1 per cent, and imports from Ireland US$18.16 billion, up 4.5 per cent.  

The main Irish exports are electrical/electronic equipment, pharmaceutical products, optical/medical apparatus: grains, seafood, dairy, and whiskey: organic chemicals and medical products like vaccines. China’s main exports are electronics and telecom equipment.

The Chamber lunch was attended by Regina Yip, who has just ended her 17-year tenure in the Legislative Council. She remains chairwoman of the New People's Party, who has served four terms in LegCo. She has said she will remain active in public service, continuing her
work in the Executive Council, engaging in people-to-people diplomacy and conducting policy research.

Padraig Seif, chairman of the Chamber, said that it had achieved much during the year. “We have someone on the ground in Ireland making contacts that were lost during Covid. These include contacts with chambers of commerce. A delegation from the Dublin Chamber of Commerce will attend the Asia Financial Forum in Hong Kong in January 2026.”

“You tell everyone of a positive story of Hong Kong and the Irish community here,” he said. There are 3,000-5,000 Irish people in the city, mostly working in professions like law, education, finance, fin-tech, food and beverages, the arts and accounting.

The highlight of the lunch was Irish dancing by Pippa Atkins and Holly Parker. They are two members of the Echoes of Erin Irish Dance Company, with a history of 17 years. It is one of two Irish dance schools in the city.

At the Irish Dancing World Championship in Liege, Belgium last year, the Echoes of Erin team finished global runners-up. Teams from 30 countries took part.

Holly is the daughter of Danielle Parker, who was world champion in 2016. “Dancing at this level requires strength, flexibility and stamina,” Danielle said. “Parents are very proud of the dancers.” She teaches at the company.

The lunch ended with a raffle. Among the prizes were bottles of Irish whiskey donated by distillers who come to Hong Kong in November to take part in the Hong Kong International Wine and Spirits Fair.

Mark O'Neill

A Hong Kong-based writer, teacher and speaker.