China should prepare soft takeover of Russian East

Mark O'Neill December 26, 2025 11:22

As Russian control over its Far East weakens after its invasion of Ukraine, China must prepare a soft takeover of the region to protect its vital economic and energy interests, bloggers said.

“History teaches us that, when land is empty, someone will take it. The Qing dynasty did not have the ability to defend it (the Eastern lands). Now the situation is different. We have the economic cards and must prepare to use them accordingly,” said Huaqing Chiling (China Qing cold pool), a blogger from Shaanxi.

Under the Treaty of Aigun of 1858, the Qing government ceded 600.000 square kilometres of “Outer Manchuria” to Tsarist Russia, giving Moscow ports on the Pacific Ocean. The Qing confirmed this cession in the Convention of Peking in 1860.

Huaqing Chiling said that the Ukrainian war had greatly weakened Russia, causing more than 100,000 dead, a serious labour shortage and the loss of the Black Sea fleet.

“Its GDP is less than that of a single Chinese province, inflation is rising and all the military forces have been moved to the West. There are less than 50,000 troops in the Far East. They are basically a shell,” he said.

“China is increasingly strong. In Russia, inflation this year will reach 9.8 per cent. The price of cars has risen 44 per cent but people cannot even afford a second-hand one. A third of the budget goes on defence, and the price of oil has fallen below US$48 a barrel because of the western sanctions,” he said.

According to the 2021 census, the Russian Far East had a population of 6.3 million people, a fall of 14 per cent from 2006, a sharper decrease than in the rest of Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it lost many of the federal subsidies that had sustained its institutions and companies.

That makes a density of less than one person per square kilometres, making the region one of the most sparsely populated areas on earth. In China’s three northeast provinces, the population is 97 million.

As villages in the Far East emptied, companies closed and its people moved to European Russia, so Chinese firms and people have replaced them. They have built ports, processed energy and provided capital and technology. The renminbi is widely used.

A second blogger, Hong Zhuxu, said that Chinese capital accounted for 90 per cent of foreign investment in the region and Chinese firms had 160 agricultural projects on 7.5 million mu (503,000 hectares) of land.

“The Russian Far East contains 657 tonnes of gold, and 5,500 tonnes of silver as well as copper, uranium and over 100 kinds of strategic metals, and vast reserves of energy. Northern China must have stable control of this key piece.

“The Russo-Ukrainian war has weakened the national strength. Russia’s control over the Far East could have systemic weakening,” he said.

Both bloggers said the Soviet Union had broken promises made by Lenin in the Karakhan Manifestos of July 1919 and September 1920 to return to China all the lands taken by the Tsarist government. In 1963, Mao Zedong repeated the demand, but the Soviet leaders rejected it.

As Moscow’s control weakens and its army shrinks, how should China secure its vital interests in the Russian Far East?

The two bloggers propose avoiding Putin’s mistake of invading Crimea in 2014, which sparked western sanctions. Instead, it should be a ‘soft’ takeover.

“If Russia breaks up, the seven million square kilometres of the Far East cannot be lost. Do not think of using force,” said Hu Qing Chiling. “The smart way is through soft power, continue to invest people and money, sign contracts and support pro-China forces. If they declare independence, in reality they will rely on China.

“The population of the Far East is very small and the land cold and remote, the infrastructure poor. Russians cannot manage it well. China must fill the gap and secure its lifelines.”

Mark O'Neill

A Hong Kong-based writer, teacher and speaker.