China’s tobacco epidemic worsened in 2025

Mark O'Neill January 05, 2026 18:37

In 2025, China’s tobacco epidemic worsened, with production and tax revenue paid to the government both rising for the eighth consecutive year.

Latest official figures showed that, during the first 11 months of the year, cigarette output rose 0.5 per cent over the same 2024 period to 2.39 trillion cigarettes, the eighth year of increase.

Tobacco taxes paid to the central government are officially estimated to rise three-four per cent in 2025 from the year earlier, compared to 1.18 trillion yuan in 2019 and 1.54 trillion yuan in 2023.

Latest figures from China National Health Commission set out the scale of the epidemic. As of 2024, China had 310 million smokers, accounting for 25 per cent of the global total,

Annual deaths of lung cancer and other tobacco-caused illness are more than one million, with the health costs reaching 380 billion yuan, it said.

It quoted 2024 figures from the World Health Organisation (WHO) showing that the number of cigarettes consumed in China accounted for 43 per cent of the global total, with 50.5 per cent of men smoking and the percentage of smokers aged 15-24 rising from 17.6 per cent in 2019 to 19.8 per cent in 2024.

These increases have come despite an official ban, imposed at the start of 2014, on government and Communist Party officials smoking in public places, including schools, hospitals, sporting venues, museums and public transport vehicles. It also bans them from smoking during meetings and business dinners. There is also a ban on giving cigarettes to officials as gifts.

The figures suggest that the tobacco culture is so ingrained in official life that the ban is not being or cannot be enforced.

An analysis on the Baidu website in October said that, during the first three quarters of 2025, sales of cigarettes costing 30 yuan or more a packet, increased 8.2 per cent and accounted for 29 per cent of the total market. Sales of middle-range cigarettes, 15-30 yuan, remained the largest market segment but rose only 2.1 per cent year on year. During the period, the authorities carried out 12,000 raids on fake cigarettes, recovering 3.8 billion yuan, it said.

A convenience store in Zhongshan, Guangdong province, sold a wide range of brands. Most expensive was Zhonghua, 77 yuan for a packet of 20, and the cheapest Jinsheng, 8.5 yuan. For a gift to officials or business partners, Zhonghua is the preferred brand, with a carton of 10 packets costing up to 1,000 yuan.

One reason for the increase in smoking is the limited awareness of the risks. While packets in Hong Kong carry a fearful image of sickness or death, those in the mainland have only a feeble written warning, but no pictures. That on the Zhongnanhai brand – named after the compound where national leaders live in Beijing – reads: “smoking harms health. Do not smoke in places where it is banned. Prevent young people smoking.”

The subject of the risks is little discussed in the media.

A good example was a lengthy analysis on October 28 last year in the official Tobacco Asia website: “Leading brands such as Zhonghua, Yu, Furongwang and Yunyan hold significant advantages in market foundation, consumer reputation, customer trust and brand stability. Their fast sales velocity and high market acceptance make them pillars of stability and key driver in addressing market challenges … The industry must develop new, market-responsive products that can share the burden and sustain growth momentum.” It did not once mention the health risks of smoking.

A second reason for the increase is the weak economy. Government revenue has been hit by a long-term slump in the property market and weak consumer demand. This makes tax revenue from tobacco even more important to the government. It accounts for seven-eight per cent of total national tax revenue.

A third reason is the low level of tax on tobacco. The WHO recommends a tax of 75 per cent on each packet. In China, the rate is about 50 per cent.

Public health campaigners say that smoking caused an enormous economic debit to the smoker and their families, to the employers and the government. This is due to sickness, lost productivity, costs of life and damage to buildings caused by careless smoking, deforestation and the use of arable land to grow tobacco that could grow food. In addition, there is the cost of cleaning up billions of cigarettes, cigarette packets, matches and lighters discarded every day.

Mark O'Neill

A Hong Kong-based writer, teacher and speaker.