Trump, Obama, China, and US elections

Michael Chugani October 30, 2026 06:30

America is a nation in suspense as it counts the remaining days before the Congressional midterm elections on November 3. Determination, dread, and despair are all front and center. Democrats are campaigning with such determination that it’s waking up even Americans who rarely vote.

Polls show they are within grasp of ousting Republicans to regain control of Congress. They are determined to prove the polls right so they can make Donald Trump a lame duck president in his final two years.

But a Democrat-controlled Congress could have far-reaching consequences for US policies towards China and, by extension, Hong Kong. Democrats and Republicans see China as a peer competitor which wants to replace the US as the global leader. But a Pew study showed Republicans are more hawkish.

Trump has reined in Republican hawkishness because of his repeated praise of China’s President Xi Jinping. He often describes Xi as a great leader with whom he has a good friendship. Democrats are highly critical of this praise for Xi. They are aware many Americans view China negatively.

But dread is also evident among Democrats despite the positive polls. They are bracing for Trump to play dirty if Republicans get trounced in the elections. They have not forgotten the January 6, 2021 violence when Trump refused to accept the outcome of the presidential election. His supporters stormed Congress after Trump falsely claimed Joe Biden cheated to defeat him.

Despair is consuming Republicans. They are painfully aware that poll after poll shows control of Congress is slipping from them. They have privately acknowledged that they will lose control of the House of Representatives and possibly even the Senate.

Trump, who knows the perils if Democrats control even one House of Congress, has already started to play dirty. So have Republicans who face an uphill climb even in some Republican stronghold states.

Trump is a master politician who knows how to fight back. He is maximizing his reach as president on social media and rallies to unleash fake allegations and racist attacks. He is particularly targeting Democrat candidates who are likely to defeat their Republican opponents in crucial states that could determine which side controls Congress.

He is using Islamophobia and false accusations against US-born Abdul El-Sayed, a Muslim Democrat who is in a tight race against his Republican opponent in Michigan for a Senate seat. Trump has repeatedly accused El-Sayed of being a terrorist sympathizer and a jihadist. He has also taunted El-Sayed's middle name Mohamed, saying all Muslims are called Mohamed.

Republican candidate for Ohio governor Vivek Ramaswamy, who is behind in the polls, is running a TV attack ad against his Democrat opponent Amy Acton that is so disparaging that even some of his Republican allies have distanced themselves from it. They described the ad as morally wrong.

But Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance support the ad. They said it is fair game in politics. The ad shows Acton's estranged 82-year-old mother accusing Acton of being a liar who should not be elected as governor. What the ad omits is that Acton's stepfather raped her when she was 12 years old.

Her stepfather was charged after she testified against him. The authorities removed Acton and her younger brother from their mother and stepfather. Acton’s stepfather fled after being charged, together with Acton’s mother in 1978. Acton has not seen her estranged mother since then.

Critics described the attack ad as the nastiest in recent memory, given the tragic rape background, but Ramaswamy has refused to withdraw it. Republican candidates who can’t run away from their support of Trump’s unpopular policies, particularly his Iran war which has driven up inflation and cost of living, are using gutter politics. They have no other message that clicks with voters.

But Democrats are turning up the heat against them by reminding voters that Trump started the Iran war and his Republican Party passed a law that tightened food stamps and healthcare benefits for lower-income families but gave huge tax cuts to the wealthy.

As Republicans struggle to find a message with just days left before the election, Democrats are pulling out their big guns to rally the troops. Former President Barack Obama, who is still immensely popular ten years after leaving office, is their biggest gun.

He has been giving rousing speeches to rapturous audiences in crucial states, attracting huge turnouts. He has appeared at rallies with candidates like El-Sayed and Amy Acton who are facing vicious attacks by their Republican opponents.

Obama unleashed searing attacks against Trump at his rallies, drawing thunderous applause. He mocked Trump for caring more about his vanity projects, such as his multi-million-dollar White House ballroom partly financed by taxpayers and his excessive use of gold décor at the Oval Office.
Obama mocked Trump’s Oval Office décor, saying he got it looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory. Saddam also had gilded palaces. The one-liner triggered multiple media headlines.

Trump has hit back at Obama’s attacks, calling Obama a failed president. It is well-known that he despises Obama. He shared a video on social media earlier this year that ended with Obama and his wife Michelle as apes dancing to The Lion Sleeps Tonight.

A popular past president going head-to-head with an unpopular current president. How will it play with voters? Will Trump’s affinity with Xi matter even though China policy hardly came up during the campaign? Polls show Democrats are riding high. But polls are not always right.

Obama is a powerful speaker, but Trump is a wily politician. He proved that when he defeated Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election despite Obama’s support for her. Who will triumph? The country will find out on November 3.

Michael Chugani

A Hong Kong-born American citizen who has worked for many years as a journalist in Hong Kong, the USA and London.