Date
24 April 2018

Karsten Junius

Chief Economist, Head Economic Research at Bank J Safra Sarasin
  • The Bank of England is likely to increase its base rate in May. Photo: Reuters

    Positive macro environment prevails despite global tensions

    - Apr 19, 2018 11:43am
    Uncertainty around Syria, Russia and the United States-led trend towards more protectionist and confrontational trade policies is providing political headwinds for financial markets. Nonetheless, we reaffirm our positive macro assessment. Protectionist policies will add to the...
  • Populists will advocate against the painful structural reforms necessary for a further deepening of, and risk sharing in the European Monetary Union. Photo: Reuters

    What populism could mean for euro area

    - Mar 29, 2018 8:30am
    Europe’s readiness to enter a trade war should be a wake-up call for those relying on the rule of law, international organizations and cooperation – the pillars of the post-war multilateral system. This would be a...
  • The risk profile is largely shaped by foreign currency exposure. From a risk management perspective, it is generally a good idea to hedge the currency risk for bonds. Photo: Reuters

    Beware of currency risks

    - Feb 28, 2018 9:01am
    Investors often tend to underestimate the currency effect linked to investments in foreign currencies. Bond yields are heavily influenced by foreign currency movements. With equities, currency fluctuations generally even out over time. Investing abroad means taking...
  • The ECB has indicated that it will adjust its policy language pertaining to various dimensions of the monetary stance and forward guidance. Photo: Reuters

    When will the ECB shift to a more hawkish stance?

    - Jan 31, 2018 10:00am
    The European Central Bank (ECB) has rattled markets with a paragraph in its latest minutes noting that its forward guidance is likely be changed along “various dimensions” early this year. In particular, it stated that the...
  • The put/call open interest ratio for the Nasdaq 100 went through the roof in October-November 2017, coinciding with the weakness, which started in large technology stocks at the end of November. Photo: Bloomberg

    Cooling some froth in equity markets

    - Dec 11, 2017 3:43pm
    The frothier elements of global equity markets ‒ mainly technology and emerging markets stocks ‒ will probably enter a period of consolidation in December. While the medium-term outlook remains solid, there is also a feeling that...
  • The October 2017 IMF Financial Stability Report highlights the risk from the high indebtedness of developed countries. Photo: AFP

    Debt developments: More divergence in euro area

    - Oct 23, 2017 9:00am
    Debt-to-GDP ratios among euro area members have diverged since the financial crisis. However, for most countries interest expenses fell. This is a key risk to budget deficits if bond yields increase. We favor underweighting French sovereign...
  • The recent strength in the euro should concern the European Central Bank. Photo: Reuters

    Euro strength detached from rates market

    - Sep 18, 2017 3:21pm
    The euro has continued the upward trend that started with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s speech in Sintra, Portugal. Its momentum gained strength following the July ECB meeting, in which Draghi said the governing council paid...
  • Since July, the EUR/USD exchange rate has risen further and the trade weighted euro is almost 5 percent above the level of the latest ECB projections. Photo: pixabay

    ECB minutes tend to favor upward trend of the euro

    - Aug 24, 2017 4:19pm
    The major headline for the market from the ECB minutes was the comment about the euro exchange rate. The ECB’s comment suggests it was fine with a EUR/USD exchange rate rising to 1.15. However, since the...
  • More than two years after the Swiss National Bank ceased to defend the exchange rate floor in mid-January 2015, the economy has managed a solid rebound. Photo: Reuters

    Switzerland benefits from European growth, internal changes

    - Jul 31, 2017 9:32am
    Switzerland managed to adjust to the exchange rate shock two years ago and is growing again. Unemployment rates are falling such that consumer confidence is increasing again, bolstering private consumption. Domestic and imported consumer prices are...

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