24 January 2018

Karsten Junius

Chief Economist, Head Economic Research at Bank J Safra Sarasin
  • The put/call open interest ratio for the Nasdaq 100 went through the roof in October-November 2017, coinciding with the weakness, which started in large technology stocks at the end of November. Photo: Bloomberg

    Cooling some froth in equity markets

    - Dec 11, 2017 3:43pm
    The frothier elements of global equity markets ‒ mainly technology and emerging markets stocks ‒ will probably enter a period of consolidation in December. While the medium-term outlook remains solid, there is also a feeling that...
  • The October 2017 IMF Financial Stability Report highlights the risk from the high indebtedness of developed countries. Photo: AFP

    Debt developments: More divergence in euro area

    - Oct 23, 2017 9:00am
    Debt-to-GDP ratios among euro area members have diverged since the financial crisis. However, for most countries interest expenses fell. This is a key risk to budget deficits if bond yields increase. We favor underweighting French sovereign...
  • The recent strength in the euro should concern the European Central Bank. Photo: Reuters

    Euro strength detached from rates market

    - Sep 18, 2017 3:21pm
    The euro has continued the upward trend that started with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s speech in Sintra, Portugal. Its momentum gained strength following the July ECB meeting, in which Draghi said the governing council paid...
  • Since July, the EUR/USD exchange rate has risen further and the trade weighted euro is almost 5 percent above the level of the latest ECB projections. Photo: pixabay

    ECB minutes tend to favor upward trend of the euro

    - Aug 24, 2017 4:19pm
    The major headline for the market from the ECB minutes was the comment about the euro exchange rate. The ECB’s comment suggests it was fine with a EUR/USD exchange rate rising to 1.15. However, since the...
  • More than two years after the Swiss National Bank ceased to defend the exchange rate floor in mid-January 2015, the economy has managed a solid rebound. Photo: Reuters

    Switzerland benefits from European growth, internal changes

    - Jul 31, 2017 9:32am
    Switzerland managed to adjust to the exchange rate shock two years ago and is growing again. Unemployment rates are falling such that consumer confidence is increasing again, bolstering private consumption. Domestic and imported consumer prices are...

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